NDLI: Trends of older gastric cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China: 2010

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Niu, Penghui Zhang, Fan Ma, Deyuan Zhou, Xiadong Zhu, Yitong Luan, Xiaoyi Zhao, Lulu Wang, Wanqing Zhang, Xiaojie Han, Xue He, Mingyan Guan, Quanlin Li, Yumin Liu, Yuqin Chen, Yingtai
Abstract	Background Gastric cancer is a major health problem worldwide, with a high incidence among older adults. Given the aging overall population, it was crucial to understand the current burden and prospective trend of older gastric cancer. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of the incidence, mortality, and survival of older gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China from 2010 to 2019, and to predict the future burden of older gastric cancer up to 2024. Methods The study was conducted in Gansu province, an area characterized by the highest gastric cancer incidence and mortality in China. The registration data of gastric cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2019 were pooled from registries in the Gansu Cancer Registration System, while survival data were collected from the First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, and Gansu Cancer Hospital. Chinese standard population in 2000 and the Segi’s world standard population were applied to calculate the age-standardized rate. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cancer incidence and mortality. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to generate forecasts for incidence and mortality from 2020 to 2024. Results Based on registry data from 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer among older adults remained stable. The incidence rates declined from 439.65 per 100,000 in 2010 to 330.40 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.59% (95% confidence interval[CI], -5.14 to 0.04, P = 0.06). Similarly, the mortality rate changed from 366.98 per 100,000 in 2010 to 262.03 per 100,000 in 2019, with an AAPC of -2.55% (95% CI, -8.77–4.08%, P = 0.44). In the hospital-based cohort, the decline in survival rates was reported among older patients with gastric cancer in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, with the 3-year overall survival (OS) decreasing from 58.5% (95% CI, 53.5–63.2%) in 2010 to 34.4% (95%CI, 32.1–36.7%) in 2019, and the 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) decreasing from 51.3% (95%CI, 47.5–55.1%) in 2010 to 34.2% (95%CI, 32.0–36.3%) in 2019, respectively. Moreover, forecasts generated by ARIMA models revealed a significant decline in the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer in China from 2020 to 2024. Specifically, the incidence rate of older gastric cancer was expected to decrease from 317.94 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 205.59 per 100,000 population in 2024, while the anticipated mortality rate was estimated to decrease from 222.52 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 186.22 per 100,000 population in 2024. Conclusion From 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of older gastric cancer remained stable in the highest gastric cancer risk area in China, while the survival rates showed a decline. Based on the ARIMA models, it was anticipated that there might be a continued decline in older gastric cancer incidence and mortality in the highest-risk area in China over the next five years.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-024-19944-2.pdf
Ending Page	11
Page Count	11
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-024-19944-2
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	24
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2024-09-09
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health Gastric cancer Older adults Incidence Mortality Survival ARIMA models Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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