NDLI: The present value of human life losses associated with COVID-19 and likely productivity losses averted through COVID-19 vaccination in Madagascar

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Musango, Laurent Mandrosovololona, Vatsiharizandry Randriatsarafara, Fidiniaina Mamy Ranarison, Volahanta Malala Kirigia, Joses Muthuri Ratsimbasoa, Claude Arsène
Abstract	As of 3 March 2023, Madagascar had reported 1,422 deaths from COVID-19. Up to now, there hasn't been a study to estimate the Total Present Value of Human Life lost $\left({TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}\right)$ , productivity losses, and potential productivity losses averted through COVID-19 vaccination for use in advocacy. The study reported in this paper aimed to fill these information gaps. The Human Capital Model (HCM) was used to estimate the ${TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}$ , which is the sum of the discounted value of human life losses among individuals in seven different age groups. The Present Value of Human Life for each age group $\left({PVHL}_{i}\right)$ was calculated by multiplying the discount factor, the undiscounted years of life, the non-health gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the number of COVID-19 deaths in that age group. To test the robustness of the results, the HCM was rerun five times, assuming (i) a 5% discount rate, (ii) a 10% discount rate, (iii) Africa’s highest average life expectancy at birth of 78.76 years, (iv) the world's highest life expectancy of 88.17 years, (v) projected excess COVID-19 mortality of 11,418.66 deaths as of 3 March 2023 in Madagascar, and assuming different levels of vaccine coverage: 100%, 70%, 60.93%, and 8.266%. The 1,422 human lives lost due to COVID-19 had a ${TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}$ of Int$ 46,331,412; and an average of Int$ 32,582 per human life. Re-estimation of the HCM, using (i) discount rates of 5% and 10% reduced ${TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}$ by 23% and 53%, respectively; (ii) average life expectancies of 78.76 years and 88.17 years increased ${TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}$ by 23.7% and 39.5%, respectively; (iii) projected excess COVID-19 mortality of 11,418.66 augmented ${TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}$ by 703%. Furthermore, it is estimated that vaccinating 70% of the target population could potentially save the country Int$ 1.1 billion, equivalent to 1.94% of the GDP. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant health and productivity losses for Madagascar. Optimizing COVID-19 vaccination coverage for the target population could substantially reduce these losses.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-024-20786-1.pdf
Ending Page	20
Page Count	20
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-024-20786-1
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	24
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2024-11-27
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health COVID-19 Indirect cost Indirect cost savings Productivity losses Vaccination Value of life Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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