NDLI: Projection of the prevalence of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer incidence using cigarette smoking prevalence in Iran from 1990 to 2018: a comparison of latent period-based models with standard forecasting models

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Mirahmadizadeh, Alireza Hassanzadeh, Jafar Moradi, Afrooz Mazidi Gheibi, Zahra Heiran, Alireza
Abstract	Background Smoking is the major risk factor for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers. We investigated the feasibility of projecting TBL cancer incidence using smoking incidence rates by incorporating a range of latent periods from the main risk factor exposure to TBL cancer diagnosis. Methods In this ecological study, we extracted data on TBL cancer incidence rates in Iran from 1990 to 2018 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We also collected data on Iranian cigarette smoking patterns over the past 40 years through a literature review. The weighted average smoking incidence was calculated using a fixed-effects model with Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software. Using these data, the five-year TBL cancer incidence in Iran was projected through time series modeling with IT Service Management (ITSM) 2000 software. A second model was developed based on cigarette smoking incidence using linear regression with SPSS (version 22), incorporating different latent periods. The results of these two models were compared to determine the best latent periods. Results An increasing trend in TBL cancer incidence was observed from 2019 to 2023 (first model: 10.30 [95% CI: 9.62, 10.99] to 11.42 [95% CI: 10.85, 11.99] per 100,000 people). In the second model, the most accurate prediction was obtained with latent periods of 17 to 20 years, with the best prediction using a 17-year latent period (10.13 to 11.40 per 100,000 people) and the smallest mean difference of 0.08 (0.84%) per 100,000 people using the standard forecasting model (the ARIMA model). Conclusion Projecting an increase in TBL cancer incidence rates in the future, an optimal latent period of 17 to 20 years between exposure to cigarette smoke and TBL cancer incidence has implications for macrolevel preventive health policymaking to help reduce the burden of TBL cancer in upcoming years.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-024-19407-8.pdf
Ending Page	6
Page Count	6
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-024-19407-8
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	24
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2024-07-15
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health Lung cancer Projection Smoking Latent period Time series Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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