NDLI: Impact assessment of self-medication on COVID-19 prevalence in Gauteng, South Africa, using an age-structured disease transmission modelling framework

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Avusuglo, Wisdom S. Han, Qing Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa Bragazzi, Nicola Asgary, Ali Ahmadi, Ali Orbinski, James Wu, Jianhong Mellado, Bruce Kong, Jude Dzevela
Abstract	Objective To assess the impact of self-medication on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 across different age groups, examine the interplay of vaccination and self-medication in disease spread, and identify the age group most prone to self-medication. Methods We developed an age-structured compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early dynamics of COVID-19. Age-structured data from the Government of Gauteng, encompassing the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases, were used to calibrate the model through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework. Subsequently, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted on the model parameters. Results We found that self-medication is predominant among the age group 15-64 (74.52%), followed by the age group 0-14 (34.02%), and then the age group 65+ (11.41%). The mean values of the basic reproduction number, the size of the first epidemic peak (the highest magnitude of the disease), and the time of the first epidemic peak (when the first highest magnitude occurs) are 4.16499, 241,715 cases, and 190.376 days, respectively. Moreover, we observed that self-medication among individuals aged 15-64 results in the highest spreading rate of COVID-19 at the onset of the outbreak and has the greatest impact on the first epidemic peak and its timing. Conclusion Studies aiming to understand the dynamics of diseases in areas prone to self-medication should account for this practice. There is a need for a campaign against COVID-19-related self-medication, specifically targeting the active population (ages 15-64).
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-024-18984-y.pdf
Ending Page	13
Page Count	13
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-024-18984-y
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	24
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2024-06-07
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health COVID-19 Self-medication Age-structured Disease model Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
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9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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