NDLI: Air traffic complexity and the interacting particle system method: An integrated approach for collision risk estimation

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Prandini, M. Blom, H.A.P. Bakker, G.J.
Copyright Year	2011
Description	Author affiliation: Dipt. di Elettron. e Inf., Politec. di Milano, Milan, Italy (Prandini, M.) \|\| Nat. Aerosp. Lab. NLR, Netherlands (Blom, H.A.P.; Bakker, G.J.)
Abstract	In this paper, we explore the possibility of using air traffic complexity metrics to accelerate the Interacting Particle System (IPS) method for collision risk estimation. Collision risk estimation is an essential task to assess the performance and impact of, e.g., possible modifications of the current air traffic management system or new operational concepts. The standard Monte Carlo approach to probability estimation requires a number of simulations that scales as the inverse of the probability to be estimated. This makes it impracticable for estimating the probability of a rare event such as a collision, and calls for ad-hoc solutions. In the IPS method, the collision risk is estimated as the product of the conditional probabilities of an increasing sequence of conditionally not-so-rare events, where aircraft get at progressively smaller distances one from the other. Additional computational saving can be obtained by adopting importance sampling techniques where initial aircraft configurations that are more prone to lead to a collision are favored. The idea that we pursue in this paper is to select those configurations by using some complexity metric. In particular, we propose to combine IPS with a probabilistic complexity metric that explicitly accounts for the uncertainty affecting the aircraft motion. Preliminary results obtained by applying this integrated approach to a free flight scenario are presented in the paper.
Sponsorship	Control Syst. Soc.
Starting Page	2154
Ending Page	2159
File Size	188843
Page Count	6
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781457700804
ISSN	07431619
e-ISBN	9781457700811
DOI	10.1109/ACC.2011.5991305
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2011-06-29
Publisher Place	USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	American Automatic Control Council(AACC)
Subject Keyword	Aircraft Complexity theory Atmospheric modeling Estimation Markov processes Measurement Trajectory
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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