NDLI: Housing market cycle in China: An empirical study based on stock-flow model

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Jiang Yan Feng Lei Dan Mo Tan Xue-qin
Copyright Year	2010
Description	Author affiliation: Department of Land and Real Estate Management, School of Public Administration, Renmin University of China, P. R. China, 100872 (Feng Lei; Dan Mo; Tan Xue-qin) \|\| School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, P. R. China, 100872 (Jiang Yan)
Abstract	This paper analyzes the factors driving housing market cycle in China from 1986 to 2009 by extending the traditional stock-flow model. The conclusions are as follows. (1) Land supply, housing stock, population and income affect housing price significantly. (2) Housing price greatly affects housing construction with an elasticity of 1.28. (3) Expectation rather than user cost is the main determining factor of housing price. If the current price increases by 1%, ceteris paribus, the housing price is expected to increase by 0.48% in the next period. (4) Finally, we also identified measurements that are helpful to reduce price volatility in the housing market and to maintain macroeconomic control over the market. These measurements include increasing land supply, managing consumers' expectations, strengthening the monitoring of macroeconomy and real estate market, and focusing on the continuity and consistency among different policies.
Starting Page	1671
Ending Page	1676
File Size	132036
Page Count	6
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424481163
ISSN	21551855
e-ISBN	9781424481194
DOI	10.1109/ICMSE.2010.5720007
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2010-11-24
Publisher Place	Australia
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Analytical models Loans and mortgages land supply Databases Biological system modeling real estate cycle Data models expectation stock-flow model Mathematical model Equations
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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