NDLI: Cost Evaluation for Hydropower Construction Using Multiple Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Xun Liu Zhuofu Wang Honglian Yin
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	Quantifying and minimizing the risks associated with schedule and cost in hydropower construction are the main challenges for all parties involved. Under the impact of uncertain factors such as meteorological factor, there is a great uncertainty in the construction schedule of hydropower construction, accompanying with the occurrence of cost risk. This paper establishes the cost evaluation model using multiple Monte Carol simulation method discusses the uncertainty and distribution of construction cost. By use of the probability theory and Monte Carlo simulation method, a scientific calculation method and procedure were worked out for construction cost. The 95th percentile project schedule value, its corresponding cost value, and the percentile ranking of the cost were recorded, and the conditional percentile ranking of the cost values were determined. Finally, in order to quantify the relationship existing between the percentile ranking of the cost and its corresponding cost value, the regression analysis models about them were founded and compared, and the high confidence percentile estimating values for cost and schedule were required simultaneously. Having the ability to accurately quantify this relationship enables the selection of high percentile level values for the hydropower construction cost estimate and schedule simultaneously.
Starting Page	1
Ending Page	4
File Size	425428
Page Count	4
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424465798
e-ISBN	9781424465811
DOI	10.1109/ICMSS.2011.5998164
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2011-08-12
Publisher Place	China
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Schedules Analytical models Monte Carlo methods Uncertainty Hydroelectric power generation Mathematical model
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
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9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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