NDLI: Combination prediction model and dynamic analysis of arable land pressure in Shandong

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Changyou Wu Deguang Yang
Copyright Year	2011
Description	Author affiliation: College of Agriculture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin China 150030 (Changyou Wu; Deguang Yang)
Abstract	Based on the model of arable land pressure, this paper calculated the series of cultivated land pressure in Shandong province from 1990 to 2005. The trend of arable land pressure was analyzed by using exponential regression model, polynomial regression model and GM (1,1) model. The combination forecasting model of cultivated land pressure in Shandong was established by means of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The results show that: (1)it is feasible to apply the PSO to solve weight of combination forecasting model.(2) the arable land area is decreasing and the land area per capita decreased from 1990 to 2008, so cultivated land pressure is increasing. The pressure index will be up to 1.8438, 1.9081, 1.9745, 2.0433, 2.1145 and 2.1881 from 2010 to 2015 year, so it is difficulty to keep the arable land resource security. Some measures were proposed for easing arable land pressure.
Starting Page	2037
Ending Page	2040
File Size	193485
Page Count	4
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424494361
e-ISBN	9781424494392
DOI	10.1109/MACE.2011.5987372
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2011-07-15
Publisher Place	China
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Analytical models Biological system modeling Production Predictive models Data models Arable land pressure Forecasting model Indexes Forecasting Particle swarm optimization
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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