NDLI: Forecasting dose for large solar energetic particle events: is there time to predict?

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Neal, J.S. Nichols, T.F. Townsend, L.W.
Copyright Year	2005
Description	Author affiliation: Dept. of Nucl. Eng., Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN, USA (Neal, J.S.; Nichols, T.F.; Townsend, L.W.)
Abstract	Predicting large solar energetic particle (SEP) events before onset at the Sun is beyond our current forecasting capability. There is, however, a high correlation between large SEP events and fast, coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Event-triggered forecasting methodologies can utilize (1) solar observables such as CME speed, width, or longitude prior to particle arrival at a monitoring spacecraft and/or (2) arriving particle properties such as intensity or energy spectra. It has been proposed that proton intensities on the stream-limited plateau present a minimal radiation hazard to astronauts, and hazardous intensities can occur upon CME-driven shock arrival at the spacecraft. It then follows, that forecasts need only predict the arrival time and severity of the shock prior to its arrival at the spacecraft. Ongoing efforts seek to predict the time of arrival and particle flux magnitude of shocks in order to provide a one hour warning of shock impact at Earth. In order to evaluate the correctness of this proposal, we evaluate five large events for imparted dose prior to and after shock arrival. We also discuss the implications of our results for event-triggered methodologies.
Starting Page	704
Ending Page	711
File Size	450512
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISBN	0780388704
DOI	10.1109/AERO.2005.1559361
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2005-03-05
Publisher Place	USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Load forecasting Electric shock Space vehicles Weather forecasting Protons Earth Sun Hazards Storms Monitoring
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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