NDLI: Risk analysis for nondeterministic mission planning and sequencing

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Kar-Ming Cheung Ko, A. Dang, V. Heckman, D.
Copyright Year	2005
Description	Author affiliation: California Inst. of Technol., Pasadena, CA, USA (Kar-Ming Cheung; Ko, A.; Dang, V.; Heckman, D.)
Abstract	In this paper, we address the dilemma of planning in the presence of uncertainty - the problem of scheduling events where some events might have nondeterministic durations. Real world planning and scheduling problems are almost always difficult. Planning and scheduling of events with a mixture of deterministic and nondeterministic durations is particularly challenging. The idea of scheduling events into a conflict-free plan becomes obscure and intangible when event durations are not known in advance - there is no guarantee that when the plan is executed, the scheduled events would not violate any pre-defined rules and constraints, and the resource usages would not exceed their maximum allowable limits. This dilemma of not being able to a priori quantify the likelihood of achieving a conflict-free plan in the presence of uncertainty usually results in an overly conservative plan where resources are under utilized. Making use of some standard communication link analysis techniques to characterize communication system performance, to support tradeoffs, and to manage the operational risks associate with the link usage, we instigate a probabilistic description of event durations and introduce the notion of risk in terms of probability that the plan fails to execute successfully, which we denote as Pp. We attempt to define a rational and systematic approach to weight risk against efficiency by iteratively applying constrained optimization algorithms and Monte Carlo simulations to the plan. We also derive a simple upper bound of PF for a given plan, which is independent of the optimization algorithm. This risk management approach allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainty, and help to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Another emphasis of this paper is to demonstrate that the general criteria of optimality and rules and constraints for event planning can be described mathematically in terms of linear and non-linear functions and inequalities. This allows the use of customized and commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) constraint optimization algorithms to generate conflict-free plans. The results described in this paper are applicable to many general planning and scheduling problems. However the emphasis of this work is on mission planning and sequencing of spacecraft events with a mixture of deterministic and nondeterministic durations. Mission planning and sequencing is a critical component for mission operations. It provides a mechanism for scientists and engineers to operate the spacecraft remotely from the ground. It translates the science intents and spacecraft health and safety requests from the users into mission plans and sequences. After a rigorous process validating the plan, the plan will be transmitted to the spacecraft for its execution. Usually mission planning and sequencing and its validation are time consuming and costly operations. We apply the aforementioned methodology for formulating and optimizing both deterministic and nondeterministic sequence events planning. We demonstrate this approach with examples of scheduling science and engineering activities for mission operations.
Starting Page	147
Ending Page	158
File Size	397372
Page Count	12
File Format	PDF
ISBN	0780388704
DOI	10.1109/AERO.2005.1559308
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2005-03-05
Publisher Place	USA
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Risk analysis Space vehicles Uncertainty Risk management Constraint optimization Iterative algorithms Aerospace engineering Communication standards Failure analysis Performance analysis
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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