NDLI: Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens.

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Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens.

Content Provider	World Health Organization (WHO)-Global Index Medicus
Author	Gog, Julia R. Grenfell, Bryan T.
Description	Author Affiliation: Gog JR ( Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom. julia@zoo.cam.ac.uk);
Abstract	Strain structure is of fundamental importance in the underlying dynamics of a number of pathogens. However, previous models have been too complex to accommodate many strains. This paper offers a solution to this problem, in the form of a simple model that is capable of capturing the dynamics of a large number of antigenic types that interact via host cross-immunity. We derive the structure of the model, which can manage the complexity of many strains by using a status-based formulation, assuming polarized immunity and cross-immunity act to reduced transmission probability. We then apply the model to address basic questions in strain dynamics, focusing particularly on the interpandemic dynamics of influenza. This model shows that strains have a tendency to 'cluster.' For a long infectious period, relative to host lifetime, clusters may coexist. By contrast, a short infectious period leads to a single dominant cluster at any given time. We show how the speed of cluster replacement depends on the specificity of cross-immunity and on the underlying pathogen mutation rate.
ISSN	00278424
e-ISSN	10916490
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Issue Number	26
Volume Number	99
Language	English
Publisher	National Academy of Sciences
Publisher Date	2002-12-01
Publisher Place	United States
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Antigenic Variation Immunology Cross Reactions Models, Biological Cluster Analysis Immunity Mutation Population Dynamics Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Multidisciplinary
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Multidisciplinary

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