NDLI: The effect of the great Kermanshah earthquake on the tuberculosis infection trend: interrupted time series analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Mardani-Talaee, Ehsan Salimi, Yahya Heydarpour, Fatemeh Darbandi, Mitra Abdoli, Gholamreza
Abstract	Objectives Tuberculosis (TB) presents a substantial danger to populations experiencing crises like earthquakes. This study aims to explore the effect of the Kermanshah earthquake on the trend of TB. Methods This cross-sectional study examined tuberculosis data from 2009 to 2020, using monthly diagnoses. Data was collected from the TB research office and registration system. The study employed interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess both the immediate and long-term impacts of the earthquake on TB cases. Results In Sarpol-e Zahab, TB cases initially surged after the earthquake, indicating an immediate effect, but then significantly declined compared to pre-earthquake levels, reflecting an effect over time (β0 = 1.39, β1=-0.004, β2 = 0.11 and β3=-0.01, P = 0.001 and Post-intervention linear trend= -0.015, P < 0.001). In Ghasr-e Shirin, the average number of TB cases prior to the earthquake was estimated at 0.58 cases, with a significant monthly decrease of 0.005 cases leading up to the earthquake (P = 0.001). There was no significant immediate change in TB cases during the first month after the earthquake (β2 = 0.008, P = 0.680). Post-earthquake, TB cases dramatically increased (β3 = 0.008, P = 0.001). The monthly trend of TB cases rose significantly by 0.002 (P = 0.001), indicating an effect over time. In Salas-e Babajani, there was no immediate change in TB cases, but there was a significant long-term decline compared to the period before the earthquake (P = 0.001). Conclusions Earthquake is one of the natural crises that provide the conditions for the increase of TB. Local health policymakers must make plans in these areas to contain TB after the earthquake.
Related Links	https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12879-024-09832-w.pdf
Ending Page	6
Page Count	6
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-024-09832-w
Journal	BMC Infectious Diseases
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	24
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2024-11-07
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Infectious Diseases Parasitology Medical Microbiology Tropical Medicine Internal Medicine Earthquake Tuberculosis Interrupted time series
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Infectious Diseases
Journal Impact Factor	3.4/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.3/2023

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