NDLI: Agent-based simulation on avian influenza in Vietnam: Basic characteristics of the epidemic and efficiency evaluation of control measures

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Dung Minh Nguyen Deguchi, H. Ichikawa, M.
Copyright Year	2010
Description	Author affiliation: Department of Computational Intelligence and Systems Science, Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Suzukakedai Campus: 4259 Nagatsuta-cho, Midori-ku, Yokohama 226-8502, Japan (Dung Minh Nguyen; Deguchi, H.; Ichikawa, M.)
Abstract	Background: During the first large outbreak of avian influenza (H5N1) in 2004 in Vietnam, an estimated 45 million poultry were culled or died, which resulted in a direct loss of approximately 0.1 percentage points of GDP (World Bank, 2005). The need for an effective strategy is not only the concern of biology and medical science but also of epidemiology. Methodology: We use a mathematical model to estimate the transmission probability of the disease based on daily reported number of dead poultry in northern Vietnam in November of 2005. The estimated values then are applied in an agent-based model which is used to evaluate the efficiency of current under-taken control measures. Result: The results imply a combination of culling 10% of infected poultry, 50% of preventive vaccinating and limiting transport of poultry, poultry products when 1% of the population were reported infectious could keep the disease under control and halt the infection process within 65 days. Conclusion: To prevent a new major outbreak of avian influenza in domestic poultry, a comprehensive strategy of culling, bio-security control and large-scale vaccination campaign should be set up in motion.
Starting Page	1
Ending Page	6
File Size	264540
Page Count	6
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424464852
e-ISBN	9781424464876
DOI	10.1109/ICSSSM.2010.5530215
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2010-06-28
Publisher Place	Japan
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Economic indicators avian influenza Computational modeling epidemic Loss measurement control measure Agricultural engineering bird influenza Diseases Influenza Differential equations agent-based simulation Large-scale systems Mathematical model Computational intelligence
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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