NDLI: Quantifying the relationship between lockdowns, mobility, and effective reproduction number (Rt) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Dainton, Christopher Hay, Alexander
Abstract	Background The effectiveness of lockdowns in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 has been the subject of intense debate. Data on the relationship between public health restrictions, mobility, and pandemic growth has so far been conflicting. Objective We assessed the relationship between public health restriction tiers, mobility, and COVID-19 spread in five contiguous public health units (PHUs) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in Ontario, Canada. Methods Weekly effective reproduction number (Rt) was calculated based on daily cases in each of the five GTA public health units between March 1, 2020, and March 19, 2021. A global mobility index (GMI) for each PHU was calculated using Google Mobility data. Segmented regressions were used to assess changes in the behaviour of Rt over time. We calculated Pearson correlation coefficients between GMI and Rt for each PHU and mobility regression coefficients for each mobility variable, accounting for time lag of 0, 7, and 14 days. Results In all PHUs except Toronto, the most rapid decline in Rt occurred in the first 2 weeks of the first province-wide lockdown, and this was followed by a slight trend to increased Rt as restrictions decreased. This trend reversed in all PHUs between September 6th and October 10th after which Rt decreased slightly over time without respect to public health restriction tier. GMI began to increase in the first wave even before restrictions were decreased. This secular trend to increased mobility continued into the summer, driven by increased mobility to recreational spaces. The decline in GMI as restrictions were reintroduced coincides with decreasing mobility to parks after September. During the first wave, the correlation coefficients between global mobility and Rt were significant (p < 0.01) in all PHUs 14 days after lockdown, indicating moderate to high correlation between decreased mobility and decreased viral reproduction rates, and reflecting that the incubation period brings in a time-lag effect of human mobility on Rt. In the second wave, this relationship was attenuated, and was only significant in Toronto and Durham at 14 days after lockdown. Conclusions The association between mobility and COVID-19 spread was stronger in the first wave than the second wave. Public health restriction tiers did not alter the existing secular trend toward decreasing Rt over time.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-021-11684-x.pdf
Ending Page	8
Page Count	8
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-021-11684-x
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	21
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2021-09-11
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health COVID-19 Lockdown Pandemic Mobility Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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