NDLI: The effect of average temperature on suicide rates in five urban California counties, 1999–⁠2019: an ecological time series analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Cheng, Sierra Plouffe, Rebecca Nanos, Stephanie M. Qamar, Mavra Fisman, David N. Soucy, Jean-Paul R.
Abstract	Background Suicide is among the top 10 leading causes of premature morality in the United States and its rates continue to increase. Thus, its prevention has become a salient public health responsibility. Risk factors of suicide transcend the individual and societal level as risk can increase based on climatic variables. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the association between average temperature and suicide rates in the five most populous counties in California using mortality data from 1999 to 2019. Methods Monthly counts of death by suicide for the five counties of interest were obtained from CDC WONDER. Monthly average, maximum, and minimum temperature were obtained from nCLIMDIV for the same time period. We modelled the association of each temperature variable with suicide rate using negative binomial generalized additive models accounting for the county-specific annual trend and monthly seasonality. Results There were over 38,000 deaths by suicide in California’s five most populous counties between 1999 and 2019. An increase in average temperature of 1 °C corresponded to a 0.82% increase in suicide rate (IRR = 1.0082 per °C; 95% CI = 1.0025–1.0140). Estimated coefficients for maximum temperature (IRR = 1.0069 per °C; 95% CI = 1.0021–1.0117) and minimum temperature (IRR = 1.0088 per °C; 95% CI = 1.0023–1.0153) were similar. Conclusion This study adds to a growing body of evidence supporting a causal effect of elevated temperature on suicide. Further investigation into environmental causes of suicide, as well as the biological and societal contexts mediating these relationships, is critical for the development and implementation of new public health interventions to reduce the incidence of suicide, particularly in the face increasing temperatures due to climate change.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-021-11001-6.pdf
Ending Page	9
Page Count	9
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-021-11001-6
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	21
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2021-05-25
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health Suicide Suicide prevention Climate change Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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