NDLI: Current status of premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4: a population-based study in northeast China, 2004

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Liu, Li Li, Yanxia Song, Junmin Chen, Qian Li, Shuang Mu, Huijuan Na, Jun Zhang, Rui Yu, Liya Sun, Wei Pan, Guowei
Abstract	Background and aim According to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4, premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus, collectively referred to as NCD4) should achieve a minimum decline of 33% in 2030 relative to 2015. This remains a challenge for China. This study aimed to evaluate the current status and progress towards this target in Liaoning Province, one of the three provinces in northeast China. Methods We calculated the premature mortality rates (PMRs) per year and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) from NCD4 using mortality data between 2004 and 2017. The trend was analyzed in the whole population, as well as in subpopulations of gender (male/female) and inhabiting area (urban/rural). PMRs from NCD4 for 2030 were projected by fitting a linear regression based on the current trend, which was identified by a Joinpoint model. Findings In the whole population, only chronic respiratory diseases showed a significant decline (AAPC: − 6.5%, p < 0.05), while only cancer showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 1.3%, p < 0.05); taken together, NCD4 showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 0.6%, p < 0.05). In the subpopulations, while males showed a significant increase in NCD4 (AAPC: + 1.5%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: + 1.7%, p < 0.05), cancer (AAPC: + 1.8%, p < 0.05), and diabetes mellitus (AAPC: + 4.2%, p < 0.05), females showed a significant decline in NCD4 (AAPC: − 1.2%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: − 1.8%, p < 0.05), diabetes mellitus (AAPC: − 2.1%, p < 0.05), but showed a mild increase in cancer (AAPC: + 0.5%, p > 0.05). A comparative analysis of the projected PMRs for 2030 with the 2015 levels revealed that only chronic respiratory diseases are expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4, apart from in the urban male subpopulation. Conclusion Except for chronic respiratory diseases, NCD4 cannot be expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4 in the whole population of Liaoning Province. Under these circumstances, special attention should be paid to reducing the risks of cancer and providing preventative interventions for men.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-021-11611-0.pdf
Ending Page	11
Page Count	11
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-021-11611-0
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	21
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2021-09-02
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health Average annual percentage change China Chronic disease Liaoning Mortality Non-communicable disease Premature Sustainable Development Goal Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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