NDLI: Using a hybrid agent-based and equation based model to test school closure policies during a measles outbreak

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Hunter, Elizabeth Kelleher, John D.
Abstract	Background In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest effect on an outbreak. Methods To test the effects of a school closure policy on the spread of an infectious disease (in this case measles) we run simulations closing schools based on either the proximity of the town to the initial outbreak or the centrality of the town within the network of towns in the simulation. To do this we use a hybrid model that combines an agent-based model with an equation-based model. In our analysis, we use three measures to compare the effects of different intervention strategies: the total number of model runs leading to an outbreak, the total number of infected agents, and the geographic spread of outbreaks. Results Our results show that closing down the schools in the town where an outbreak begins and the town with the highest in degree centrality provides the largest reduction in percent of runs leading to an outbreak as well as a reduction in the geographic spread of the outbreak compared to only closing down the town where the outbreak begins. Although closing down schools in the town with the closest proximity to the town where the outbreak begins also provides a reduction in the chance of an outbreak, we do not find the reduction to be as large as when the schools in the high in degree centrality town are closed. Conclusions Thus we believe that focusing on high in degree centrality towns during an outbreak is important in reducing the overall size of an outbreak.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-021-10513-5.pdf
Ending Page	13
Page Count	13
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-021-10513-5
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	21
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2021-03-12
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health Agent-based model Infectious disease School closure Measles Simulation Hybrid model Ireland Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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