NDLI: The effects of ionic strength and organic matter on virus inactivation at low temperatures: general likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) as an alternative to least-squares parameter optimization for the fitting of virus inactivation models

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Mayotte, Jean Marc Grabs, Thomas Sutliff Johansson, Stacy Bishop, Kevin
Copyright Year	2017
Abstract	This study examined how the inactivation of bacteriophage MS2 in water was affected by ionic strength (IS) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) using static batch inactivation experiments at 4 °C conducted over a period of 2 months. Experimental conditions were characteristic of an operational managed aquifer recharge (MAR) scheme in Uppsala, Sweden. Experimental data were fit with constant and time-dependent inactivation models using two methods: (1) traditional linear and nonlinear least-squares techniques; and (2) a Monte-Carlo based parameter estimation technique called generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The least-squares and GLUE methodologies gave very similar estimates of the model parameters and their uncertainty. This demonstrates that GLUE can be used as a viable alternative to traditional least-squares parameter estimation techniques for fitting of virus inactivation models. Results showed a slight increase in constant inactivation rates following an increase in the DOC concentrations, suggesting that the presence of organic carbon enhanced the inactivation of MS2. The experiment with a high IS and a low DOC was the only experiment which showed that MS2 inactivation may have been time-dependent. However, results from the GLUE methodology indicated that models of constant inactivation were able to describe all of the experiments. This suggested that inactivation time-series longer than 2 months were needed in order to provide concrete conclusions regarding the time-dependency of MS2 inactivation at 4 °C under these experimental conditions.Cette étude a examiné comment l’inactivation du bactériophage MS2 dans l’eau a été affectée par la force ionique (IS) et le carbone organique dissous (COD) en utilisant des expériences statiques d’inactivation en batch à 4 °C réalisées sur une période de deux mois. Les conditions expérimentales sont caractéristiques d’un système opérationnel de gestion d’un aquifère par recharge (MAR) à Uppsala, Suède. Les données expérimentales ont été ajustées avec des modèles d’inactivation constants et dépendants du temps en utilisant deux méthodes: (1) techniques traditionnelles des moindres carrés linéaires et non linéaires ; et (2) un technique d’estimation Monte-Carlo basée sur les paramètres appelée estimation des incertitudes de la vraisemblance généralisée (GLUE). Les méthodes des moindres carrés et de la méthode GLUE ont donné des estimations très similaires des paramètres du modèle et de leur incertitude. Ceci démontre que la méthode GLUE peut être utilisée comme une alternative viable aux techniques traditionnelles d’estimation des paramètres par moindres carrés pour l’ajustement des modèles d’inactivation virale. Les résultats ont montré une légère augmentation des taux d’inactivation constants suite à une augmentation des concentrations de COD, ce qui suggère que la présence du carbone organique a favorisé l’inactivation de MS2. L’expérience avec un IS élevé et un faible COD était la seule expérience qui a montré que l’inactivation de MS2 pouvait être dépendante du temps. Cependant, les résultats de la méthodologie GLUE ont indiqué que les modèles d’inactivation constante étaient capables de décrire toutes les expériences. Cela suggère que des séries temporelles d’inactivation de plus de deux mois étaient nécessaires pour fournir des conclusions concrètes concernant la dépendance temporelle de l’inactivation MS2 à 4 °C dans ces conditions expérimentales.Este estudio examinó cómo la inactivación del bacteriófago MS2 en el agua se vio afectada por la fuerza iónica (IS) y el carbono orgánico disuelto (DOC) mediante experimentos de inactivación por lotes estáticos a 4 °C durante un período de dos meses. Las condiciones experimentales fueron características de un esquema de gestión operacional de recarga de acuíferos (MAR) en Uppsala, Suecia. Los datos experimentales se ajustaron con modelos de inactivación constantes y dependientes del tiempo utilizando dos métodos: (1) técnicas lineales y no lineales tradicionales de mínimos cuadrados; y (2) una técnica de estimación de parámetros basada en Monte Carlo llamada estimación de la probabilidad generalizada de incertidumbre (GLUE). Las metodologías de mínimos cuadrados y GLUE dieron estimaciones muy similares de los parámetros del modelo y su incertidumbre. Esto demuestra que se puede usar GLUE como una alternativa viable a las técnicas de estimación de parámetros de mínimos cuadrados tradicionales para la adaptación de modelos de inactivación de virus. Los resultados mostraron un ligero aumento en las tasas de inactivación constante después de un aumento en las concentraciones de DOC, lo que sugiere que la presencia de carbono orgánico aumentó la inactivación de MS2. El experimento con un alto IS y un bajo DOC fue el único experimento que mostró que la inactivación de MS2 puede haber sido dependiente del tiempo. Sin embargo, los resultados de la metodología GLUE indicaron que los modelos de inactivación constante fueron capaces de describir todos los experimentos. Esto sugirió que se necesitaban series de tiempo de inactivación de más de dos meses para proporcionar conclusiones concretas con respecto a la dependencia temporal de la inactivación de MS2 a 4 °C bajo estas condiciones experimentales.本研究利用时间为两个月、温度为4°C进行的静态批量试验,检查了水中的MS2噬菌体灭活是怎样受到离子强度和溶解有机碳影响的。试验条件具有瑞典Uppsala地区运行的管理的含水层补给计划的特征。采用两种方法使试验数据与恒定的和依赖于时间的灭活模型匹配:(1)传统的线性和非线性最小二乘技术;(2)被称为一般可能性的不确定性估计法的基于Monte-Carlo参数估算技术。最小二乘法和一般可能性的不确定性估计法给出了模型参数及其不确定性非常类似的估算值。这说明,一般可能性的不确定性估计法可在传统的最小二乘参数估算技术中作为可行的替代法,来匹配病毒灭活模型。结果显示,溶解有机碳含量增加之后,恒定的灭活率稍微提高,表明,有机碳的存在强化了MS2的灭活效果。高离子强度和低溶解有机碳的试验是唯一一个显示MS2灭活可能是依赖于时间的试验。然而,一般可能性的不确定性估计法得到的结果表明,恒定灭活模型能够描述所有的试验。这表明,为了提供在这些试验条件下温度为4°C时MS2灭活时间依赖关系的具体结论,需要长于两个月的灭活时序。Esse estudo examinou como a inativação em água do bacteriófago MS2 foi afetada pela força iônica (FI) e carbono orgânico dissolvido (COD) utilizando experimentos de inativações de carga estática a 4 °C conduzido por um período de dois meses. As condições experimentais foram características de um esquema operacional de gerenciamento de recarga de aquífero (GRA) em Uppsala, Suécia. Dados experimentais foram ajustados com modelos de inativação constantes e dependentes no tempo utilizando dois métodos: (1) técnicas de quadrados mínimos lineares e não lineares tradicionais; e (2) uma técnica de estimativa de parâmetro baseada em Monte-Carlo chamada de estimativa da incerteza de probabilidade generalizada (GLUE). As metodologias dos quadrados mínimos e de GLUE forneceram estimativas similares dos parâmetros do modelo e suas incertezas. Isso demonstra que o GLUE pode ser usado como uma alternativa viável às técnicas de estimativa de parâmetros tradicionais de quadrados mínimos para ajustes de modelos de inativação de vírus. Os resultados mostraram um ligeiro aumento nas taxas de inativação constantes seguindo um aumento nas concentrações de COD, sugerindo que a presença de carbono orgânico melhora a inativação do MS2. O experimento com alta FI e baixo COD foi o único experimento onde foi mostrado que a inativação de MS2 pode ter dependido do tempo. Contudo, os resultados da metodologia GLUE indicaram que modelos de inativação constante foram capazes de descrever todos os experimentos. Este fato sugere que as séries temporais de inativação maiores que dois meses foram necessárias para fornecer conclusões concretas quanto a dependência temporal da inativação de MS2 a 4 °C sob essas condições experimentais.
Starting Page	1063
Ending Page	1076
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14312174
Journal	Hydrogeology Journal
Volume Number	25
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	14350157
Language	Portuguese
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2017-04-01
Publisher Institution	International Association of Hydrogeologists
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Virus inactivation Uncertainty Groundwater management Bacteriophage MS2 Health Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources Geology Water Quality/Water Pollution Geophysics/Geodesy Waste Water Technology Water Pollution Control Water Management Aquatic Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth and Planetary Sciences Water Science and Technology

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