NDLI: A new methodology for uncertainty evaluation in risk assessment. Bayesian estimation of a safety index based upon extreme values

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Battistelli, L. Chiodo, E. Lauria, D.
Copyright Year	2008
Description	Author affiliation: Electr. Eng. Dept., Univ. Federico II of Naples, Naples (Battistelli, L.; Chiodo, E.; Lauria, D.)
Abstract	A methodological contribution is presented in the framework of safety and security studies, where it is of paramount importance to be able to statistically characterize very rare and uncertain events. For this purpose, the paper illustrates a Bayesian methodology for the estimation of a stochastic process characterizing the maximum value of a succession of random variables (RV), representing the successive values of a disturbance in time. This stochastic process, already proposed and applied in power systems by the authors, is a powerful mathematical tool very adequate for describing a safety index (SI) for any engineering system, as discussed in the paper, also with some references to electrical applications. The paper is focused upon a Bayesian estimation (BE) technique, applied for the first time at the best of authorspsila knowledge, in which a new probability density function (pdf) -the so-called ldquoNegative Exponential Betardquo pdf - is adopted for converting prior information about rare events probabilities into accident rate information. Such BE is both efficient and easy to implement, as shown also by means of numerical simulations. In particular, the superiority of the BE with respect to the ldquoclassicalrdquo Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation methods, traditionally adopted in power system applications, is illustrated in terms of ldquorelative efficiencypsila. The ML estimates are outperformed by the BE, especially when few experimental data are available, as typically occurs when dealing with rare events affecting safety.
Starting Page	439
Ending Page	444
File Size	478778
Page Count	6
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424416639
DOI	10.1109/SPEEDHAM.2008.4581209
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2008-06-11
Publisher Place	Italy
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Bayes estimation Maximum likelihood estimation Beta distribution Negative Exponential Beta distribution Bayesian methods Poisson Process Probability density function Silicon Safety Indexes Stress Extreme values
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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