NDLI: Performance-based aggregation of expert opinions for reliability prediction of Arctic offshore facilities

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Naseri, M. Fuqing, Y. Barabady, J.
Copyright Year	2015
Description	Author affiliation: Dept. of Eng. & Safety, Univ. of Tromso - The Arctic Univ. of Norway, Tromso, Norway (Naseri, M.; Fuqing, Y.; Barabady, J.)
Abstract	One of the major challenges in reliability assessment of Arctic oil and gas facilities is lack of adequate life data. In order to use the available life data obtained in normal climate regions, some modifications are required to include the adverse effects of Arctic operating conditions on equipment reliability performance. In this study, a methodology, based on expert judgement concept, is presented to modify the available mean time to failure (MTTF) data for analyzing the reliability of Arctic oil and gas facilities. For this purpose, expert opinions on the potential amount of decrease in MTTF of a set of components are elicited in the form of distributions. Such opinions are further aggregated using arithmetic averaging rules. A performance-based method is used to assign a weight for each expert based on his/her opinion on some calibration questions. A case study illustrates the proposed methodology.
Starting Page	1062
Ending Page	1066
File Size	1734656
Page Count	5
File Format	PDF
e-ISBN	9781467380669
DOI	10.1109/IEEM.2015.7385811
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2015-12-06
Publisher Place	Singapore
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Temperature oil and gas Particle separators expert judgements performance-based aggregation Calibration Reliability Arctic System reliability Ocean temperature Meteorology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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