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Content Provider | IEEE Xplore Digital Library |
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Author | Sean Chang Le Xie Dumas, J. |
Copyright Year | 2015 |
Description | Author affiliation: Dept. of Electr. & Comput. Eng., Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX, USA (Sean Chang; Le Xie) || Wholesale Market Oper., Electr. Reliability Council of Texas, Taylor, TX, USA (Dumas, J.) |
Abstract | In electricity markets, credit collateral requirements for participants have traditionally been set based on historical price data that may not properly reflect future risks. A new predictive approach to determining credit risk is proposed in this paper. For any market that prices reserves in the real-time market, correlation exists between available reserve levels and real-time energy prices. This paper shows that it is possible to forecast hourly system-wide available reserves in a realistic system such as the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market for up to a week ahead with high confidence. A credit collateral call can then be issued based on predicted system conditions due to the strong correlation between system-wide reserves and real-time energy prices. This in turn, would lower the risk of default for participants as it better reflects their actual risk. Case studies based on a representative ERCOT simulation show that potential scarcity conditions can be successfully identified as far as four days out. |
Starting Page | 1 |
Ending Page | 5 |
File Size | 478881 |
Page Count | 5 |
File Format | |
ISBN | 9781467380409 |
DOI | 10.1109/PESGM.2015.7285727 |
Language | English |
Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) |
Publisher Date | 2015-07-26 |
Publisher Place | USA |
Access Restriction | Subscribed |
Rights Holder | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) |
Subject Keyword | Wind forecasting Reliability Load forecasting Electricity supply industry Correlation Real-time systems Forecasting credit collateral requirement Reserve forecasting electricity market power system reliability |
Content Type | Text |
Resource Type | Article |
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