NDLI: Modelling foot-and-mouth disease transmission in a wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem.

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Modelling foot-and-mouth disease transmission in a wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem.

Content Provider	World Health Organization (WHO)-Global Index Medicus
Author	Ward, M. P. Garner, M. G. Cowled, B. D.
Spatial Coverage	Western Australia Northern Territory
Description	Country affiliation: Australia Author Affiliation: Ward MP ( The University of Sydney, Faculty of Veterinary Science, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, New South Wales, 2570, Australia. michael.ward@sydney.edu.au.)
Abstract	OBJECTIVE: To use simulation modelling to predict the potential spread and to explore control options for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion in a mixed wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem in northern Australia. DESIGN: Based on aerial surveys, expert opinion and published data, the wild pig and grazing cattle distributions were simulated. A susceptible-infected-resistant disease-spread model was coded and parameterised according to published literature and expert opinion. METHODS: A baseline scenario was simulated in which infection was introduced via wild pigs, with transmission from pigs to cattle and no disease control. Assumptions regarding disease transmission were investigated via sensitivity analyses. Predicted size and length of outbreaks were compared for different control strategies based on movement standstill, surveillance and depopulation. RESULTS: In most of the simulations, FMD outbreaks were predicted to be ongoing after 6 months, with more cattle herds infected than wild pig herds (median 907 vs. 22, respectively). Assuming only pig-to-pig transmission, the infection routinely died out. In contrast, assuming cattle-to-cattle, cattle-to-pig or pig-to-cattle transmission resulted in FMD establishing and spreading in more than 75% of simulations. A control strategy targeting wild pigs only was not predicted to be successful. Control based on cattle only was successful in eradicating the disease. However, control targeting both pigs and cattle resulted in smaller outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: If FMD is controlled in cattle in the modelled ecosystem, it is likely to be self-limiting in wild pigs. However, to eradicate disease as quickly as possible, both wild pigs and cattle should be targeted for control.
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	00050423
Issue Number	1-2
Volume Number	93
e-ISSN	17510813
Journal	Australian Veterinary Journal
Language	English
Publisher	Wiley-Blackwell
Publisher Date	2015-01-01
Publisher Place	Great Britain (UK)
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Discipline Veterinary Medicine Cattle Diseases Disease Outbreaks Veterinary Foot-and-mouth Disease Epidemiology Transmission Swine Diseases Animals Animals, Domestic Animals, Wild Cattle Prevention & Control Virology Communicable Disease Control Methods Computer Simulation Demography Disease Models, Animal Ecosystem Geographic Information Systems Northern Territory Swine Western Australia Journal Article
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Veterinary Medicine

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RE: Modelling foot-and-mouth disease transmission in a wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem.

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