NDLI: Age-specific transmission dynamics under suppression control measures during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Zhu, Wenlong Wen, Zexuan Chen, Yue Gong, Xiaohuan Zheng, Bo Liang, Xueyao Xu, Ao Yao, Ye Wang, Weibing
Abstract	Background From March to June 2022, an Omicron BA.2 epidemic occurred in Shanghai. We aimed to better understand the transmission dynamics and identify age-specific transmission characteristics for the epidemic. Methods Data on COVID-19 cases were collected from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission during the period from 20th February to 1st June. The effective reproductive number (Rt) and transmission distance between cases were calculated. An age-structured SEIR model with social contact patterns was developed to reconstruct the transmission dynamics and evaluate age-specific transmission characteristics. Least square method was used to calibrate the model. Basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated with next generation matrix. Results R0 of Omicron variant was 7.9 (95% CI: 7.4 to 8.4). With strict interventions, Rt had dropped quickly from 3.6 (95% CI: 2.7 to 4.7) on 4th March to below 1 on 18th April. The mean transmission distance of the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai was 13.4 km (95% CI: 11.1 to 15.8 km), which was threefold longer compared with that of epidemic caused by the wild-type virus in Wuhan, China. The model estimated that there would have been a total 870,845 (95% CI: 815,400 to 926,289) cases for the epidemic from 20th February to 15th June, and 27.7% (95% CI: 24.4% to 30.9%) cases would have been unascertained. People aged 50–59 years had the highest transmission risk 0.216 (95% CI: 0.210 to 0.222), and the highest secondary attack rate (47.62%, 95% CI: 38.71% to 56.53%). Conclusions The Omicron variant spread more quickly and widely than other variants and resulted in about one third cases unascertained for the recent outbreak in Shanghai. Prioritizing isolation and screening of people aged 40–59 might suppress the epidemic more effectively. Routine surveillance among people aged 40–59 years could also provide insight into the stage of the epidemic and the timely detection of new variants. Trial registration We did not involve clinical trial.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-023-15596-w.pdf
Ending Page	12
Page Count	12
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-023-15596-w
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	23
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2023-04-22
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health COVID-19 Omicron variant SEIR model Transmission distance Susceptibility and infectivity Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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