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| Content Provider | Springer Nature Link |
|---|---|
| Author | Woldeamlak, S. T. Batelaan, O. De Smedt, F. |
| Copyright Year | 2007 |
| Abstract | The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km$^{2}$, is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.Les effets du changement climatique sur les systèmes aquifères du bassin versant de la Grote-Nete qui représente une aire de 525 km$^{2}$ en Belgique, sont modélisés suivant des scenarii de types climat humide (effet de serre), climat froid ou NATCC (modification de la circulation thermohaline dans l’Atlantique Nord) et climat sec. Des estimations basses, centrales et élevées des changements de la température sont adoptées pour les scénarii de type climat humide. Les composantes saisonnières et annuelles du bilan d’eau, dont la recharge des eaux souterraines, sont simulées par un modèle WetSpass, tandis que les niveaux moyens annuels des eaux souterraines et l’écoulement sont simulés avec un modèle hydrogéologique MODFLOW en régime permanent. Les résultats de WetSpass pour les scenarii climat humide montrent que des hivers humides et des étés plus secs sont à prévoir par rapport à la situation actuelle. Les résultats de MODFLOW pour un scenario climat humide élevé montrent une élévation du niveau des eaux souterraines allant jusqu’à 79 cm, ce qui pourrait perturber la distribution et la diversité des espèces des prairies. Les résultats obtenus pour les scenarii climat froid donnent des hivers plus secs et des étés plus humides qu’actuellement. Les scenarii climat sec conduisent à des conditions sèches pour toute l’année. Il n’y a pas de recharge pendant l’été, ce qui s’explique principalement par des taux d’évapotranspiration par les forêts élevés et des précipitations faibles. Les niveaux moyens annuels des eaux souterraines baissent de 0.5 m, avec un maximum de 3.1 m pour la partie Est du plateau de la Campine. Ceci pourrait menacer les écosystèmes aquatiques, les arbustes et la production agricole.Se ha modelizado los efectos del cambio climático en los sistemas de agua subterránea en la cuenca Grote-Nete, Bélgica, que cubre un área de 525 km$^{2}$, usando escenarios húmedos (invernadero), fríos o NATCC (Cambio de Circulación Termohalino del Atlántico Norte) y clima seco. Se adoptan estimados clásicos, bajos, centrales y altos para cada escenario. Se simulan los componentes de balance hídrico estacional y anual incluyendo recarga de agua subterránea usando el modelo WetSpass, mientras que la descarga y elevaciones anuales de agua subterránea se han simulado en régimen permanente con el modelo de agua subterránea MODFLOW. Los resultados con WetSpass para los escenarios húmedos muestran que se esperan inviernos húmedos y veranos más secos en relación con la situación actual. Los resultados con MODFLOW para el escenario húmedo alto muestran que los niveles de agua subterránea incrementan hasta en 79 cm lo cual podría afectar la distribución y riqueza de especies de las praderas. Los resultados obtenidos para escenarios fríos predicen condiciones secas para todo el año. No existe recarga en verano los cual se atribuye principalmente a los altos ritmos de evapotranspiración del bosque y a la baja precipitación. Los niveles promedio anuales de agua subterránea bajan 0.5 m con un máximo de 3.1 m en la parte oriental de la Meseta Campine. Estos descensos en el nivel de agua subterránea pueden poner en peligro el ecosistema acuático, arbustos, y la producción de cultivos. |
| Starting Page | 891 |
| Ending Page | 901 |
| Page Count | 11 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 14312174 |
| Journal | Hydrogeology Journal |
| Volume Number | 15 |
| Issue Number | 5 |
| e-ISSN | 14350157 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer-Verlag |
| Publisher Date | 2007-02-01 |
| Publisher Institution | International Association of Hydrogeologists |
| Publisher Place | Berlin, Heidelberg |
| Access Restriction | One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) |
| Subject Keyword | Groundwater systems Groundwater recharge/water budget Geographic information systems Climate change Belgium Waste Water Technology Water Pollution Control Water Management Aquatic Pollution Geology Hydrogeology |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Earth and Planetary Sciences Water Science and Technology |
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