NDLI: Impacts of climate change on groundwater in Australia: a sensitivity analysis of recharge

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	McCallum, J. L. Crosbie, R. S. Walker, G. R. Dawes, W. R.
Copyright Year	2010
Abstract	Groundwater recharge is a complex process reflecting many interactions between climate, vegetation and soils. Climate change will impact upon groundwater recharge but it is not clear which climate variables have the greatest influence over recharge. This study used a sensitivity analysis of climate variables using a modified version of WAVES, a soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer model (unsaturated zone), to determine the importance of each climate variable in the change in groundwater recharge for three points in Australia. This study found that change in recharge is most sensitive to change in rainfall. Increases in temperature and changes in rainfall intensity also led to significant changes in recharge. Although not as significant as other climate variables, some changes in recharge were observed due to changes in solar radiation and carbon dioxide concentration. When these variables were altered simultaneously, changes in recharge appeared to be closely related to changes in rainfall; however, in nearly all cases, recharge was greater than would have been predicted if only rainfall had been considered. These findings have implications for how recharge is projected to change due to climate change.La recharge des nappes est un processus complexe reflétant de nombreuses interactions entre climat, végétation et sols. Le changement climatique impacte la recharge de la nappe, mais la variable climatique qui a la plus grande incidence sur la recharge n’apparaît pas clairement. Cette étude opère une analyse de sensibilité aux variables climatiques en utilisant une version modifiée de WAVES, un modèle de transfert sol-végétation-atmosphère (zone non saturée) pour déterminer l’incidence de chaque variable climatique sur la recharge sur trois sites australiens. Cette étude montre que la recharge est plus sensible aux précipitations qu’aux autres facteurs. Des accroissements de température et des variations d’intensité des pluies conduisent aussi à des variations significatives de recharge. Bien que moins significatives, des variations de recharge dues à des variations d’insolation et de concentration en gaz carbonique ont été observées. Quand ces variables évoluent simultanément, les variations de la recharge apparaissent comme étant clairement corrélés aux variations des précipitations; cependant, dans presque tous les cas, la recharge est plus grande que celle qui correspondrait aux seules précipitations. Ces résultats ont des implications sur la prévision de recharge due au changement climatique.La recarga de agua subterránea es un proceso complejo que refleja muchas interacciones entre el clima, la vegetación y los suelos. El cambio climático impactará sobre la recarga del agua subterránea pero no está claro que variables climáticas tienen la mayor influencia sobre la recarga. Este estudio usó un análisis sensitivo de las variables climáticas empleando una versión modificada de WAVES, un modelo de transferencia atmósfera – vegetación – suelo (zona no saturada), para determinar la importancia de cada variable climática en el cambio en la recarga de agua subterránea en tres sitios de Australia. Este estudio encontró que el cambio en la recarga es más sensible al cambio en la la precipitación. Los incrementos de las temperaturas y cambios en la intensidad de las precipitaciones también condujeron a cambios significativos en la recarga. También fueron observados algunos cambios en la recarga debido a cambios en la radiación solar y en la concentración de dióxido carbono, aunque no tan significativo como con las otras variables climáticas. Cuando estas variables fueron alteradas simultáneamente, los cambios en la recarga parecieron estar estrechamente relacionados a cambios en la precipitación; sin embargo en casi todos los casos la recarga fue mayor que habría sido predicho si solamente la precipitación hubiese sido considerado. Estos hallazgos tienen implicancias en el proyectado cambio en la recarga debido al cambio climático.地下水补给是一个反映气候、植被、土壤相互作用的综合过程。气候变化影响到地下水补给, 但尚不知道其中哪些变量起主导作用。本研究利用修改的土壤-植被-大气-转化WAVES模型 (非饱和带) 对气候变量进行了敏感性分析, 以确定在澳大利亚三个地点各变量对地下水补给的重要性。研究发现, 补给的变化对降水量的变化最为敏感。温度升高和降雨强度亦具有显著影响。虽然不如其它气候变量影响显著, 某些补给变化系由太阳辐射和二氧化碳浓度变化所致。当这些变量同时改变时, 补给的变化与降水量变化密切相关。但差不多所有案例中, 补给都大于仅考虑降水量变化时的预测值。这些发现有助于理解补给变化如何随气候变化而变化。A recarga de água subterrânea é um processo complexo que reflecte muitas interacções entre o clima, a vegetação e os solos. As alterações climáticas irão provocar impactes na recarga de água subterrânea, mas não é evidente quais as variáveis climáticas que exercerão a maior influência na recarga. Neste estudo desenvolveu-se uma análise de sensibilidade de variáveis climáticas usando uma versão modificada do WAVES, um modelo (da zona não saturada) de transferência-solo-vegetação-atmosfera, para determinar a importância de cada variável climática nas alterações da recarga de água subterrânea em três pontos na Austrália. Neste estudo observou-se que as alterações da recarga são muito sensíveis às alterações da precipitação. Aumentos de temperatura e alterações na intensidade da precipitação também conduziram a alterações significativas da recarga. Apesar de não serem tão significativas como outras variáveis climáticas, algumas alterações da recarga foram observadas como sendo devidas a alterações na radiação solar e a concentração de dióxido de carbono. Quando estas variáveis são modificadas simultaneamente, as alterações da recarga parecem estar intimamente relacionadas com as alterações da precipitação; no entanto, em quase todos os casos, a recarga era maior do que aquela que seria prevista considerando somente a precipitação. Estas observações têm implicações na forma como a recarga é projectada quando se consideram as alterações climáticas.
Starting Page	1625
Ending Page	1638
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14312174
Journal	Hydrogeology Journal
Volume Number	18
Issue Number	7
e-ISSN	14350157
Language	Portuguese
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2010-07-06
Publisher Institution	International Association of Hydrogeologists
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate change Groundwater recharge/water budget Water resources WAVES Australia Waste Water Technology Water Pollution Control Water Management Aquatic Pollution Geology Hydrogeology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth and Planetary Sciences Water Science and Technology

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