NDLI: Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Ratio for Dengue Fever at the Take-Off Period of Dengue Infection

Content Provider	PubMed Central
Author	Jafaruddin, Indratno, Sapto W. Nuraini, Nuning Supriatna, Asep K. Edy, Soewono
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Estimating the basic reproductive ratio ℛ 0 of dengue fever has continued to be an ever-increasing challenge among epidemiologists. In this paper we propose two different constructions to estimate ℛ 0 which is derived from a dynamical system of host-vector dengue transmission model. The construction is based on the original assumptionthat in the early states of an epidemic the infected human compartment increases exponentially at the same rate as the infected mosquito compartment (previous work). In the firstproposed construction, we modify previous works by assuming that the rates of infectionfor mosquito and human compartments might be different. In the second construction, weadd an improvement by including more realistic conditions in which the dynamics of aninfected human compartments are intervened by the dynamics of an infected mosquito compartment,and vice versa. We apply our construction to the real dengue epidemic data fromSB Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, during the period of outbreak Nov. 25, 2008–Dec. 2012. We also propose two scenarios to determine the take-off rate of infection at the beginningof a dengue epidemic for construction of the estimates of ℛ 0: scenario I from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to time (daily) and scenario II from equation of new casesof dengue with respect to cumulative number of new cases of dengue. The results show that our firstconstruction of ℛ 0 accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans. Our second construction of the ℛ 0 estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa. We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.
Related Links	http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/206131
Starting Page	206131
File Format	PDF
ISSN	17486718
e-ISSN	17486718
Journal	Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Volume Number	2015
Language	English
Publisher	Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publisher Date	2015-01-01
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Subject Keyword	Research in Higher Education
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Applied Mathematics Immunology and Microbiology Medicine Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology Modeling and Simulation

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