NDLI: Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Content Provider	PubMed Central
Author	Liu, Wendi Tang, Sanyi Xiao, Yanni
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	The aim of the present study is to apply simple ODE models in the area of modeling the spread of emerging infectious diseases and show the importance of model selection in estimating parameters, the basic reproduction number, turning point, and final size. To quantify the plausibility of each model, given the data and the set of four models including Logistic, Gompertz, Rosenzweg, and Richards models, the Bayes factors are calculated and the precise estimates of the best fitted model parameters and key epidemic characteristics have been obtained. In particular, for Ebola the basic reproduction numbers are 1.3522 (95% CI (1.3506, 1.3537)), 1.2101 (95% CI (1.2084, 1.2119)), 3.0234 (95% CI (2.6063, 3.4881)), and 1.9018 (95% CI (1.8565, 1.9478)), the turning points are November 7,November 17, October 2, and November 3, 2014, and the final sizes until December 2015 are 25794 (95% CI (25630, 25958)), 3916 (95% CI (3865, 3967)), 9886 (95% CI (9740, 10031)), and 12633 (95% CI (12515, 12750)) for West Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, respectively. The main results confirm that model selection is crucial in evaluating and predicting the important quantities describing the emerging infectious diseases, and arbitrarily picking a model without any consideration of alternatives is problematic.
Related Links	http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/207105
Starting Page	207105
File Format	PDF
ISSN	1748670X
e-ISSN	17486718
Journal	Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Volume Number	2015
Language	English
Publisher	Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publisher Date	2015-01-01
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Subject Keyword	Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) Modelling and Simulation Immunology and Microbiology(all) Applied Mathematics Medicine(all) Research in Higher Education
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Applied Mathematics Immunology and Microbiology Medicine Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology Modeling and Simulation

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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