NDLI: Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

Content Provider	PubMed Central
Author	Stutz, Aaron Jonas
Editor	Shennan, Stephen
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and intergenerational resource transfers to wider institutions and social networks.
Related Links	http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0105291
Starting Page	105291
File Format	PDF
ISSN	19326203
e-ISSN	19326203
Journal	PLoS ONE
Issue Number	8
Volume Number	9
Language	English
Publisher	Public Library of Science
Publisher Date	2014-08-01
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	Public Library of Science
Subject Keyword	Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all) Medicine(all) Research in Higher Education
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Multidisciplinary

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Exponential Random Graph Modeling for Complex Brain Networks

Pre-Columbian Floristic Legacies in Modern Homegardens of Central Amazonia

Role of Intracellular Stochasticity in Biofilm Growth. Insights from Population Balance Modeling

Pre-Vaccination Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Carriage in a Nigerian Population: Epidemiology and Population Biology

How well can the exponential-growth coalescent approximate constant-rate birth–death population dynamics?

Super-Memorizers Are Not Super-Recognizers

On Population Growth Near Protected Areas

The Cultural Divide: Exponential Growth in Classical 2D and Metabolic Equilibrium in 3D Environments

Reduced Heme Levels Underlie the Exponential Growth Defect of the Shewanella oneidensis hfq Mutant

Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

Similar Documents

Exponential Random Graph Modeling for Complex Brain Networks

Pre-Columbian Floristic Legacies in Modern Homegardens of Central Amazonia

Role of Intracellular Stochasticity in Biofilm Growth. Insights from Population Balance Modeling

Pre-Vaccination Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Carriage in a Nigerian Population: Epidemiology and Population Biology

How well can the exponential-growth coalescent approximate constant-rate birth–death population dynamics?

Super-Memorizers Are Not Super-Recognizers

On Population Growth Near Protected Areas

The Cultural Divide: Exponential Growth in Classical 2D and Metabolic Equilibrium in 3D Environments

Reduced Heme Levels Underlie the Exponential Growth Defect of the Shewanella oneidensis hfq Mutant

Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth