NDLI: Predictive analysis for social processes I: Multi-scale hybrid system modeling

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Colbaugh, R. Glass, K.
Copyright Year	2009
Description	Author affiliation: Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87111 USA (Colbaugh, R.) \|\| New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, 87801 USA (Glass, K.)
Abstract	This two-part paper presents a new approach to predictive analysis for social processes. In Part I, we begin by identifying a class of social processes which are simultaneously important in applications and difficult to predict using existing methods. It is shown that these processes can be modeled within a multi-scale, stochastic hybrid system framework that is sociologically sensible, expressive, illuminating, and amenable to formal analysis. Among other advantages, the proposed modeling framework enables proper characterization of the interplay between the intrinsic aspects of a social process (e.g., the “appeal” of a political movement) and the social dynamics which are its realization; this characterization is key to successful social process prediction. The utility of the modeling methodology is illustrated through a case study involving the global SARS epidemic of 2002–2003. Part II of the paper then leverages this modeling framework to develop a rigorous, computationally tractable approach to social process predictive analysis.
Starting Page	501
Ending Page	506
File Size	415390
Page Count	6
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781424446018
ISSN	10851992
DOI	10.1109/CCA.2009.5280709
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2009-07-08
Publisher Place	Russia
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Modeling Predictive models Motion pictures Stochastic systems Control system synthesis Glass Technological innovation Marketing and sales Power generation economics Economic forecasting
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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