NDLI: A nomogram based on pretreatment CT radiomics features for predicting complete response to chemoradiotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Luo, He-San Huang, Shao-Fu Xu, Hong-Yao Li, Xu-Yuan Wu, Sheng-Xi Wu, De-Hua
Abstract	Purpose To develop and validate a nomogram model to predict complete response (CR) after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients using pretreatment CT radiomic features. Methods Data of patients diagnosed as ESCC and treated with CCRT in Shantou Central Hospital during the period from January 2013 to December 2015 were retrospectively collected. Eligible patients were included in this study and randomize divided into a training set and a validation set after successive screening. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with logistic regression to select radiomics features calculating Rad-score in the training set. The logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictive clinical factors for developing a nomogram model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to assess the performance of the predictive nomogram model and decision curve was used to analyze the impact of the nomogram model on clinical treatment decisions. Results A total of 226 patients were included and randomly divided into two groups, 160 patients in training set and 66 patients in validation set. After LASSO analysis, seven radiomics features were screened out to develop a radiomics signature Rad-score. The AUC of Rad-score was 0.812 (95% CI 0.742–0.869, p < 0.001) in the training set and 0.744 (95% CI 0.632–0.851, p = 0.003) in the validation set. Multivariate analysis showed that Rad-score and clinical staging were independent predictors of CR status, with p values of 0.035 and 0.023, respectively. A nomogram model incorporating Rad-socre and clinical staging was developed and validated, with an AUC of 0.844 (95% CI 0.779–0.897) in the training set and 0.807 (95% CI 0.691–0.894) in the validation set. Delong test showed that the nomogram model was significantly superior to the clinical staging, with p < 0.001 in the training set and p = 0.026 in the validation set. The decision curve showed that the nomogram model was superior to the clinical staging when the risk threshold was greater than 25%. Conclusion We developed and validated a nomogram model for predicting CR status of ESCC patients after CCRT. The nomogram model was combined radiomics signature Rad-score and clinical staging. This model provided us with an economical and simple method for evaluating the response of chemoradiotherapy for patients with ESCC.
Related Links	https://ro-journal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13014-020-01692-3.pdf
Ending Page	11
Page Count	11
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
DOI	10.1186/s13014-020-01692-3
Journal	Radiation Oncology
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	15
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2020-10-29
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Cancer Research Oncology Radiotherapy Imaging Radiology Chemo-radiotherapy Esophageal squamous cell cancer Radiomics Response Nomogram
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging Oncology
Journal Impact Factor	3.3/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.6/2023

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