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| Content Provider | Springer Nature : BioMed Central |
|---|---|
| Author | Sharafi, Mehdi Mohsenpour, Mohammad Ali Afrashteh, Sima Eftekhari, Mohammad Hassan Dehghan, Azizallah Farhadi, Akram Jafarnezhad, Aboubakr Zakeri, Abdoljabbar Looha, Mehdi Azizmohammad |
| Abstract | Background The worldwide prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in adults is experiencing a rapid increase. This study aimed to identify the factors affecting the survival of prediabetic patients using a comparison of the Cox proportional hazards model (CPH) and the Random survival forest (RSF). Method This prospective cohort study was performed on 746 prediabetics in southwest Iran. The demographic, lifestyle, and clinical data of the participants were recorded. The CPH and RSF models were used to determine the patients’ survival. Furthermore, the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were employed to compare the performance of the Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model and the random survival forest (RSF) model. Results The 5-year cumulative T2DM incidence was 12.73%. Based on the results of the CPH model, NAFLD (HR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.06, 2.85), FBS (HR = 1.008, 95% CI: 1.005, 1.012) and increased abdominal fat (HR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.04) were directly associated with diabetes occurrence in prediabetic patients. The RSF model suggests that factors including FBS, waist circumference, depression, NAFLD, afternoon sleep, and female gender are the most important variables that predict diabetes. The C-index indicated that the RSF model has a higher percentage of agreement than the CPH model, and in the weighted Brier Score index, the RSF model had less error than the Kaplan-Meier and CPH model. Conclusion Our findings show that the incidence of diabetes was alarmingly high in Iran. The results suggested that several demographic and clinical factors are associated with diabetes occurrence in prediabetic patients. The high-risk population needs special measures for screening and care programs. |
| Related Links | https://bmcmedinformdecismak.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12911-024-02648-3.pdf |
| Ending Page | 11 |
| Page Count | 11 |
| Starting Page | 1 |
| File Format | HTM / HTML |
| ISSN | 14726947 |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12911-024-02648-3 |
| Journal | BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making |
| Issue Number | 1 |
| Volume Number | 24 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | BioMed Central |
| Publisher Date | 2024-09-03 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Health Informatics Information Systems and Communication Service Management of Computing and Information Systems Survival analysis Prediabetic Cox regression model Random Survival Forest Afternoon sleep Depression Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Health Informatics Computer Science Applications Health Policy |
| Journal Impact Factor | 3.3/2023 |
| 5-Year Journal Impact Factor | 3.9/2023 |
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