NDLI: Nomograms predicting the overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with stage IIIC1 cervical cancer

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Feng, Yifan Wang, Ye Xie, Yangqin Wu, Shuwei Li, Yuyang Li, Min
Abstract	Background To explore the factors that affect the prognosis of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with stage IIIC1 cervical cancer and establish nomogram models to predict this prognosis. Methods Data from patients in the Surveil-lance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) programme meeting the inclusion criteria were classified into a training group, and validation data were obtained from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from 2010 to 2019. The incidence, Kaplan-Meier curves, OS and CSS of patients with stage IIIC1 cervical cancer in the training group were evaluated. Nomograms were established according to the results of univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Harrell’s C-index, calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were calculated to validate the prediction models. Results The incidence of pelvic lymph node metastasis, a high-risk factor for the prognosis of cervical cancer, decreased slightly over time. Eight independent prognostic variables were identified for OS, including age, race, marriage status, histology, extension range, tumour size, radiotherapy and surgery, but only seven were identified for CSS, with marriage status excluded. Nomograms of OS and CSS were established based on the results. The C-indexes for the nomograms of OS and CSS were 0.687 and 0.692, respectively, using random sampling of SEER data sets and 0.701 and 0.735, respectively, using random sampling of external data sets. The AUCs for the nomogram of OS were 0.708 and 0.705 for the SEER data sets and 0.750 and 0.750 for the external data sets, respectively. In addition, AUCs of 0.707 and 0.709 were obtained for the nomogram of CSS when validated using SEER data sets, and 0.788 and 0.785 when validated using external data sets. Calibration plots for the nomograms were almost identical to the actual observations. The DCA also indicated the value of the two models. Conclusions Eight independent prognostic variables were identified for OS. The same factors predicted CSS, with the exception of the marriage status. Both OS and CSS nomograms had good predictive and clinical application value after validation. Notably, tumour size had the largest contribution to the OS and CSS nomograms.
Related Links	https://bmccancer.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12885-021-08209-5.pdf
Ending Page	11
Page Count	11
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712407
DOI	10.1186/s12885-021-08209-5
Journal	BMC Cancer
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	21
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2021-04-23
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Cancer Research Oncology Surgical Oncology Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Biomedicine Medicine Public Health Cervical cancer Overall survival Cancer-special survival Nomogram FIGO Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Cancer Research Oncology Genetics
Journal Impact Factor	3.4/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.8/2023

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