NDLI: Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in the Basque Country: characterizing population immunity profile from 2020 to 2022

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Naffeti, Bechir Ounissi, Zeineb Srivastav, Akhil Kumar Stollenwerk, Nico Van-Dierdonck, Joseba Bidaurrazaga Aguiar, Maíra
Abstract	COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has spread globally, presenting a significant public health challenge. Vaccination has played a critical role in reducing severe disease and deaths. However, the waning of immunity after vaccination and the emergence of immune-escape variants require the continuation of vaccination efforts, including booster doses, to maintain population immunity. This study models the dynamics of COVID-19 in the Basque Country, Spain, aiming to characterize the population’s immunity profile and assess its impact on the severity of outbreaks from 2020 to 2022. A SIR/DS model was developed to analyze the interplay of virus-specific and vaccine-induced immunity. The model includes three levels of immunity, with boosting effects from reinfection and/or vaccination. It was validated using empirical daily case data from the Basque Country. The model tracks shifts in immunity status and their effects on disease dynamics over time. The COVID-19 epidemic in the Basque Country progressed through three distinct phases, each shaped by dynamic interactions between virus transmission, public health interventions, and vaccination efforts. The initial phase was marked by a rapid surge in cases, followed by a decline due to strict public health measures, with a seroprevalence of $1.3\%$ . In the intermediate phase, multiple smaller outbreaks emerged as restrictions were relaxed and new variants, such as Alpha and Delta, appeared. During this period, reinfection rates reached $20\%$ , and seroprevalence increased to $32\%$ . The final phase, dominated by the Omicron variant, saw a significant rise in cases driven by waning immunity and the variant’s high transmissibility. Notably, $34\%$ of infections during this phase occurred in the naive population, with seroprevalence peaking at $43\%$ . Across all phases, the infection of naive and unvaccinated individuals contributed significantly to the severity of outbreaks, emphasizing the critical role of vaccination in mitigating disease impact. The findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive public health strategies to mitigate the evolving epidemiological and immunological landscape of COVID-19. Dynamic interactions between immunity levels, reinfections, and vaccinations are critical in shaping outbreak severity and guiding evidence-based interventions.
Related Links	https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12879-024-10342-y.pdf
Ending Page	24
Page Count	24
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-024-10342-y
Journal	BMC Infectious Diseases
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	25
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2025-01-02
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Infectious Diseases Parasitology Medical Microbiology Tropical Medicine Internal Medicine Epidemiology COVID-19 modeling Data analysis Vaccination Immunity boosting Immunity profile
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Infectious Diseases
Journal Impact Factor	3.4/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.3/2023

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
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7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
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9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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