NDLI: Natural attack rate of influenza in unvaccinated children and adults: a meta-regression analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Jayasundara, Kavisha Soobiah, Charlene Thommes, Edward Tricco, Andrea C Chit, Ayman
Abstract	Background The natural (i.e. unvaccinated population) attack rate of an infectious disease is an important parameter required for understanding disease transmission. As such, it is an input parameter in infectious disease mathematical models. Influenza is an infectious disease that poses a major health concern worldwide and the natural attack rate of this disease is crucial in determining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health interventions and informing surveillance program design. We estimated age-stratified, strain-specific natural attack rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza in unvaccinated individuals. Methods Utilizing an existing systematic review, we calculated the attack rates in the trial placebo arms using a random effects model and a meta-regression analysis (GSK study identifier: 117102). Results This post-hoc analysis included 34 RCTs (Randomized Control Trials) contributing to 47 influenza seasons from 1970 to 2009. Meta-regression analyses showed that age and type of influenza were important covariates. The attack rates (95% CI (Confidence Interval)) in adults for all influenza, type A and type B were 3.50% (2.30%, 4.60%), 2.32% (1.47%, 3.17%) and 0.59% (0.28%, 0.91%) respectively. For children, they were 15.20% (11.40%, 18.90%), 12.27% (8.56%, 15.97%) and 5.50% (3.49%, 7.51%) respectively. Conclusions This analysis demonstrated that unvaccinated children have considerably higher exposure risk than adults and influenza A can cause more disease than influenza B. Moreover, a higher ratio of influenza B:A in children than adults was observed. This study provides a new, stratified and up to-date natural attack rates that can be used in influenza infectious disease models and are consistent with previous published work in the field.
Related Links	https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12879-014-0670-5.pdf
Ending Page	9
Page Count	9
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-014-0670-5
Journal	BMC Infectious Diseases
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	14
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2014-12-11
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Infectious Diseases Parasitology Medical Microbiology Tropical Medicine Internal Medicine Influenza A Influenza B Natural attack rate Healthy individuals Systematic review
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Infectious Diseases
Journal Impact Factor	3.4/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.3/2023

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