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| Content Provider | Springer Nature Link |
|---|---|
| Author | Hafner, Kurt A. |
| Copyright Year | 2016 |
| Abstract | The idea of this paper is to apply modern portfolio theory to the gross value added shares of different economic activities in order to determine whether or not industry portfolios are efficient. Using the national accounts (Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung) of Germany’s federal states for 2011, I run numerical simulations of their gross value added shares to determine the set of “efficient mean-variance combinations” (Markowitz, J Financ 7:77–91, 1952) of economic activities for each German federal state. The paper finds that their 2011 industry portfolios are in fact not efficient, and that rearranging the shares of economic activities increase total gross value added and decrease its risk. According to the numerical results, German federal states—at least Western Germany—could move from industrial to knowledge-based trading and service economies. The results are robust for different sample periods of Germany’s national accounts and the underlying assumptions of the numerical simulations are confirmed by using a sample of EU countries.Der Artikel überträgt die moderne Portfoliotheorie auf die Bruttowertschöpfung der Wirtschaftszweige in den Ländern der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und deren Branchenstrukturen. Anhand der Daten der volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung (VGR) werden zunächst die „effizienten Mittelwert-Varianz Kombinationen“ nach Markowitz (1952) berechnet, um anschließend die Effizienz der Branchenstrukturen von 2011 in den deutschen Bundesländern zu untersuchen. Die numerischen Simulationen zeigen, dass deren Branchenstrukturen nicht effizient sind und eine Umstrukturierung der Anteile der Wirtschaftszweige an der Bruttowertschöpfung zu mehr regionalem Wachstum und Stabilität führt. Dies könnte durch einen Übergang von Industriegesellschaften zu wissensbasierten Handels- und Dienstleistungsgesellschaften in allen Bundesländern – insbesondere in den westdeutschen Flächenländern – erfolgen. Die Ergebnisse sind robust für unterschiedliche Zeiträume der VGR. Eine Stichprobe von EU-Ländern bestätigt darüber hinaus die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen der numerischen Simulationen. |
| Starting Page | 169 |
| Ending Page | 193 |
| Page Count | 25 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 01737600 |
| Journal | Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft |
| Volume Number | 36 |
| Issue Number | 2 |
| e-ISSN | 16139836 |
| Language | German |
| Publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
| Publisher Date | 2016-03-07 |
| Publisher Place | Berlin, Heidelberg |
| Access Restriction | One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) |
| Subject Keyword | Wirtschaftszweige Wirtschaftswachstum Instabilität Portfoliotheorie Regional/Spatial Science Environmental Economics Population Economics Geography Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Geography, Planning and Development Economics and Econometrics |
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