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| Content Provider | Springer Nature Link |
|---|---|
| Author | Murakami, Hiroyuki Sugi, Masato Kitoh, Akio |
| Copyright Year | 2012 |
| Abstract | New and previous versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models are used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). Fifteen ensemble experiments are performed under the International Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. Most of the ensemble future (2075–2099) experiments do not project significant future changes in the basin-scale TC genesis number; however, they commonly show a substantial increase (by 46 %) in TC frequency over the Arabian Sea and a decrease (by 31 %) in the Bay of Bengal. Projected future changes in TC genesis frequency show a marked seasonal variation in the NIO: a significant and robust reduction during the pre-monsoon season, an increase during the peak-monsoon season, and a westward shift during the post-monsoon season. Several large-scale thermodynamic and dynamical parameters are analysed to elucidate the physical mechanism responsible for the future changes in TC activity; this analysis reveals a seasonal dependence of the relative contribution of these parameters to the projected future changes in TC genesis frequency. |
| Starting Page | 1949 |
| Ending Page | 1968 |
| Page Count | 20 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 09307575 |
| Journal | Climate Dynamics |
| Volume Number | 40 |
| Issue Number | 7-8 |
| e-ISSN | 14320894 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer-Verlag |
| Publisher Date | 2012-06-08 |
| Publisher Place | Berlin, Heidelberg |
| Access Restriction | One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) |
| Subject Keyword | Tropical cyclone Global warming High-resolution model North Indian Ocean Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Atmospheric Science |
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