NDLI: Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the Southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Malherbe, Johan Engelbrecht, F. A. Landman, W. A.
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	The conformal-cubic atmospheric model, a variable-resolution global model, is applied at high spatial resolution to perform simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa and over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The model is forced with the bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice of six coupled global climate models that contributed to Assessment Report 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All six simulations are for the period 1961–2100, under the A2 emission scenario. Projections for the latter part of the 21st century indicate a decrease in the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Africa, as well as a northward shift in the preferred landfall position of these systems over the southern African subcontinent. A concurrent increase in January to March rainfall is projected for northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania, with decreases projected further south over semi-arid areas such as the Limpopo River Basin where these systems make an important contribution as main cause of widespread heavy rainfall. It is shown that the projected changes in tropical cyclone attributes and regional rainfall occur in relation to changes in larger scale atmospheric temperature, pressure and wind profiles of the southern African region and adjacent oceans.
Starting Page	2867
Ending Page	2886
Page Count	20
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	40
Issue Number	11-12
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2012-12-28
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Tropical cyclone Indian Ocean Southern Africa Climate change Landfall Atmospheric model Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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