NDLI: Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Tsushima, Yoko Ringer, Mark A. Koshiro, Tsuyoshi Kawai, Hideaki Roehrig, Romain Cole, Jason Watanabe, Masahiro Yokohata, Tokuta Bodas Salcedo, Alejandro Williams, Keith D. Webb, Mark J.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Future responses of cloud regimes are analyzed for five CMIP5 models forced with observed SSTs and subject to a patterned SST perturbation. Correlations between cloud properties in the control climate and changes in the warmer climate are investigated for each of a set of cloud regimes defined using a clustering methodology. The only significant (negative) correlation found is in the in-regime net cloud radiative effect for the stratocumulus regime. All models overestimate the in-regime albedo of the stratocumulus regime. Reasons for this bias and its relevance to the future response are investigated. A detailed evaluation of the models’ daily-mean contributions to the albedo from stratocumulus clouds with different cloud cover fractions reveals that all models systematically underestimate the relative occurrence of overcast cases but overestimate those of broken clouds. In the warmer climate the relative occurrence of overcast cases tends to decrease while that of broken clouds increases. This suggests a decrease in the climatological in-regime albedo with increasing temperature (a positive feedback); this is opposite to the feedback suggested by the analysis of the bulk in-regime albedo. Furthermore we find that the inter-model difference in the sign of the in-cloud albedo feedback is consistent with the difference in sign of the in-cloud liquid water path response, and there is a strong positive correlation between the in-regime liquid water path in the control climate and its response to warming. We therefore conclude that further breakdown of the in-regime properties into cloud cover and in-cloud properties is necessary to better understand the behavior of the stratocumulus regime. Since cloud water is a physical property and is independent of a model’s radiative assumptions, it could potentially provide a useful emergent constraint on cloud feedback.
Starting Page	3025
Ending Page	3039
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	46
Issue Number	9-10
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-08-26
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Stratocumulus Liquid water path Cloud feedback Cloud radiative effect Climate model Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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