NDLI: Detection of anthropogenic influence on the evolution of record-breaking temperatures over Europe

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Bador, Margot Terray, Laurent Boé, Julien
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Changes in temperature extreme events are expected as a result of anthropogenic climate change, but uncertainties exist in when and how these changes will be manifest regionally. This is especially the case over Europe due to different methodologies and definitions of temperature extreme events. An alternative approach is to examine changes in record-breaking temperatures. Datasets of observed temperature combined with ensembles of climate model simulations are used to assess the possible causes and significance of record-breaking temperature changes over the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. A simple detection methodology is first applied to evaluate the extent to which the effect of anthropogenic forcing can be detected in present-day observed and simulated changes in record-breaking temperature. We then study the projected evolution of record-breaking daily minimum and maximum temperatures over the twenty-first century in Europe with a climate model. The same detection approach is used to identify the time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal relative to a model-derived estimate of internal variability. From the 1980s onwards, a change in the evolution of cold and warm records is observed and simulated, but it still remains in the range of internal variability until the end of the twentieth century. Minimum and maximum record-breaking temperatures tend to occur (respectively) less and more often than during the 1960s and 1970s taken as representative of a stationary climate. Model simulations with natural forcing only fail to reproduce the observed changes after the 1980s while the latter are compatible with simulations constrained by anthropogenic forcings. The deviation from the characteristic behavior of a stationary climate record-wise initiated in the 1980s is projected to accentuate during the twenty-first century. Annual changes become inconsistent with the model-derived internal variability between the 2020s and 2030s. Over the last three decades of the twenty-first century and under the RCP8.5 scenario, warm records occur on average five times more often than initially. Conversely, breaking new cold record become extremely difficult. The Mediterranean region is particularly affected in summer, whereas central and northeastern Europe is more impacted in winter.
Starting Page	2717
Ending Page	2735
Page Count	19
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	46
Issue Number	9-10
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-07-08
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Temperature record-breaking statistics Detection Internal variability Extreme events Climate change Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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