NDLI: Stochastic effects of traffic randomness on the determination of signal change and clearance intervals at signalised intersections

Content Provider	IET Digital Library
Author	Wang, Fen Tang, Keshuang Li, Keping
Abstract	Conventional methods of intergreen time design are based on deterministic traffic flow theory and are difficult to fully reflect traffic randomness especially driver's decision differences. This study is to develop a probabilistic model to extensively investigate the effects of traffic flow randomness and driver's decision errors on the determination of intergreen times. An analytical framework was proposed based on a safety reliability model earlier developed by the authors and validated based on field data at a typical high-speed intersection in Shanghai. Then, comprehensive sensitivity analysis was performed to look into the fluctuation of safety reliability towards critical variables as well as their variations and correlations. Two logistic regression models were developed to quantify the effects of each random component on the probabilities of risky behaviour and clearance failure, that is, safety reliability indicators for intergreen intervals. To facilitate easy applications of the proposed approach, a set of scenario analysis were done to calculate the required intergreen intervals under different traffic conditions and safety reliability levels. Application tables were finally provided for signal design, which are able to recommend more sophisticated intergreen times and thus aid the practitioners to select proper intergreen times according to local conditions without complicated calculation.
Starting Page	250
Ending Page	263
Page Count	14
ISSN	1751956X
Volume Number	9
e-ISSN	17519578
Issue Number	Issue 3, Apr (2015)
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/iet-its/9/3
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/10.1049/iet-its.2013.0186
Journal	IET Intelligent Transport Systems
Publisher Date	2014-07-30
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	© The Institution of Engineering and Technology
Subject Keyword	Clearance Failure Clearance Intervals Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis Deterministic Traffic Flow Theory Driver Decision Differences Driver Decision Error High-speed Intersection Intergreen Intervals Intergreen Time Design Logistic Regression Model Probabilistic Model Regression Analysis Risk Analysis Risky Behaviour Road Traffic Safety Reliability Safety Reliability Model Shanghai Signal Change Determination Signal Design Signalised Intersections Statistics Stochastic Traffic Randomness Effect System Theory Application in Transportation
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Law Transportation Environmental Science Mechanical Engineering

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