NDLI: A Multi-agent Prediction Market Based on Boolean Network Evolution

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Jumadinova, J. Matache, M.T. Dasgupta, P.
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	Prediction markets have been shown to be a useful tool in forecasting the outcome of future events by aggregating public opinion about the events' outcome. Previous research on prediction markets has mostly analyzed the prediction markets by building complex analytical models. In this paper, we posit that simpler yet powerful Boolean rules can be used to adequately describe the operations of a prediction market. We have used a multi-agent based prediction market where Boolean network based rules are used to capture the evolution of the beliefs of the market's participants, as well as to aggregate the prices in the market. We show that despite the simplification of the traders' beliefs in the prediction market into Boolean states, the aggregated market price calculated using our BN model is strongly correlated with the price calculated by a commonly used aggregation strategy in existing prediction markets called the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR). We also empirically show that our Boolean network-based prediction market can stabilize market prices under the presence of untruthful belief revelation by the traders.
Starting Page	171
Ending Page	179
File Size	1097819
Page Count	9
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9781457713736
DOI	10.1109/WI-IAT.2011.228
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2011-08-22
Publisher Place	France
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Pattern formation Boolean functions Games Predictive models complex systems modeling Random variables Security Mathematical model distributed information aggregation Prediction markets Boolean networks
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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