NDLI: Predictability of large geomagnetic disturbances based on solar wind conditions

Content Provider	IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Author	Weigel, R.S. Baker, D.N. Rigler, E.J. Vassiliadis, D.
Copyright Year	1973
Abstract	We test the ability of a data-derived model of geomagnetic activity, originally optimized to have a high prediction efficiency (PE), for its ability to predict only large geomagnetic disturbances. Correlation-based metrics, such as prediction efficiency, are often used as a measure of model performance. This metric puts equal weight on prediction of both large and small measurements. However, for space weather purposes, one is often interested in knowing only if a large disturbance event will occur so less emphasis should be placed on small measurements. If only large events are of interest, then a correlation metric is not the best measure of model performance. In this work, we determine how well a data-derived model, originally optimized to have a high prediction efficiency, predicts large geomagnetic events. The ratio of the number of correct to false alarm forecasts, R/sub F/, is used as an event-predictor metric. It is shown that in the electrojet regions the data-derived model that predicts the north-south component of the ground magnetic field B/sub x/ has a spatial R/sub F/ profile similar to that of the prediction efficiency. Maximal values of R/sub F/=4 are found at 0300 MLT when an event is defined as an excursion in the hourly-averaged north-south component of the ground magnetic field below -400 nT. Whereas the local time profile of PE(B/sub x/) is similar to R/sub F/(B/sub x/), the profile of PE(\|dB/sub x//dt\|) differs substantially from R/sub F/(\|dB/sub x//dt\|) in the noon sector. Epoch analysis shows that the poor performance in the noon sector is a result of pre-event levels of \|dB/sub x//dt\| not being clearly separated from post-event levels.
Sponsorship	IEEE Nuclear and Plasma Sciences Society
Starting Page	1506
Ending Page	1510
Page Count	5
File Size	718825
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00933813
Volume Number	32
Issue Number	4
Language	English
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Publisher Date	2004-08-01
Publisher Place	U.S.A.
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Rights Holder	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subject Keyword	Geomagnetism Wind forecasting Predictive models Nonlinear filters Geophysical measurements Neural networks Magnetic field measurement Magnetic fields Geophysics computing Testing
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Nuclear and High Energy Physics Condensed Matter Physics

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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