NDLI: The global burden of yellow fever

Content Provider	Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Author	Katy AM Gaythorpe Arran Hamlet Kévin Jean Daniel Garkauskas Ramos Laurence Cibrelus Tini Garske Neil Ferguson
Abstract	Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling. We refine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data, we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000–173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000–82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%–77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.
e-ISSN	2050084X
DOI	10.7554/eLife.64670
Journal	eLife
Volume Number	10
Language	English
Publisher	eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Publisher Date	2021-01-01
Publisher Place	United Kingdom
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Medicine Science Biology (general) Yellow Fever Mathematical Modelling Vaccine Impact Vector-borne
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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