NDLI: Uncertainty Modeling and Probabilities in Engineering Decision Analysis

Content Provider	The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Digital Collection
Author	Faber, Michael Havbro
Copyright Year	2003
Abstract	The present paper initially gives a basic introduction on the interpretation of uncertainty and probability in engineering decision analysis and explains how in some cases uncertainties may change type depending on the “scale” of the applied modeling and as a function of time. Thereafter it is attempted to identify and outline the generic character of different engineering decision problems and to categorize these as prior, posterior and pre-posterior decision problems in accordance with the Bayesian decision theory. Finally an input is given to an ongoing discussion concerning the correctness and consistency of the uncertainty modeling applied in most recent reliability updating analysis for structural re-qualification and inspection and maintenance planning. To this end an outline is given in regard to the appropriate uncertainty treatment in the probabilistic modeling for different types of decision problems.
Sponsorship	Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division
Starting Page	171
Ending Page	177
Page Count	7
File Format	PDF
ISBN	0791836827
DOI	10.1115/OMAE2003-37217
e-ISBN	079183672X
Volume Number	Volume 2: Safety and Reliability; Pipeline Technology
Conference Proceedings	ASME 2003 22nd International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
Language	English
Publisher Date	2003-06-08
Publisher Place	Cancun, Mexico
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Uncertainty Probability Inspection Maintenance Decision analysis Reliability Modeling
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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