NDLI: Effect of Model Error on Reliability Analysis of Surface Cracks

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Development and Execution of Consequence Assessment for Liquid Pipeline Facilities

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Developing a Full Risk Picture for Gas Pipeline Consequences

Effect of Model Error on Reliability Analysis of Surface Cracks

Quantitative Risk Assessment Techniques Based on Uncertainty Theory for Natural Gas Distribution Station

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Effect of Model Error on Reliability Analysis of Surface Cracks

Content Provider	The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Digital Collection
Author	Ibrahim, Mahmoud Doucette, Karmun Hassanien, Sherif Langer, Doug
Copyright Year	2018
Abstract	The application of reliability-based structural integrity enables the process of quantitative risk assessment as part of pipelines’ integrity management program (IMP). This paper explores two topics that present challenges in terms of the practical adoption of a reliability-based IMP. The first challenge is the balance between perceived and true risk when implementing a quantitative reliability-based integrity model. This is a cornerstone for building stakeholder confidence in the calculated probability of failure (PoF) which is applied to safety and economically driven integrity decisions. The second challenge is the assurance that all relevant sources of uncertainty have been incorporated, which is essential for ensuring an accurate representation of the risk of failure of the pipeline. The level of conservatism (i.e. sufficient margin of error to maintain safety) incorporated when addressing these challenges may create a situation where calculated PoFs become inflated; becoming disproportionate to the failure history and contradictory to the current safe operation of pipelines being modeled. Two different PoF calibration approaches are proposed as practical options to address these challenges. The first method calibrates model error using an operator’s in-service failure history (i.e. failures that occurred under normal operation). The second method uses a set of failure data (including hydrostatic test failures and in-service failures) as selected by the operator considering key factors to ensure adequate representation of their specific pipeline system. These options will be demonstrated by assessing the integrity reliability of a hypothetical pipeline system. This work is expected to help evaluate the feasibility of challenging current practices regarding practical inclusion of epistemic uncertainty in integrity reliability analysis of pipelines.
Sponsorship	Pipeline Division
File Format	PDF
ISBN	9780791851876
DOI	10.1115/IPC2018-78237
Volume Number	Volume 2: Pipeline Safety Management Systems; Project Management, Design, Construction, and Environmental Issues; Strain Based Design; Risk and Reliability; Northern Offshore and Production Pipelines
Conference Proceedings	2018 12th International Pipeline Conference
Language	English
Publisher Date	2018-09-24
Publisher Place	Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Uncertainty Pipelines Pipeline integrity management Event history analysis Probability Risk Calibration Errors Pipeline systems Failure data Risk assessment Hydrostatic testing Safety Reliability Surface cracks Failure
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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