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| Content Provider | Springer Nature : BioMed Central |
|---|---|
| Author | Zhao, Xiaoxu Wei, Shuxing Pan, Yujie Qu, Kunlong Yan, Guanghao Wang, Xiya Song, Yuguo |
| Abstract | Introduction This study aims to construct a mortality prediction model for patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) in the intensive care unit (ICU), employing advanced machine learning algorithms. The goal is to identify high-risk populations early, contributing to a deeper understanding of patients with NVUGIB in the ICU. Methods We extracted NVUGIB data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV, v.2.2) database spanning from 2008 to 2019. Feature selection was conducted through LASSO regression, followed by training models using 11 machine learning methods. The best model was chosen based on the area under the curve (AUC). Subsequently, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was employed to elucidate how each factor influenced the model. Finally, a case was randomly selected, and the model was utilized to predict its mortality, demonstrating the practical application of the developed model. Results In total, 2716 patients with NVUGIB were deemed eligible for participation. Following selection, 30 out of a total of 64 clinical parameters collected on day 1 after ICU admission remained associated with prognosis and were utilized for developing machine learning models. Among the 11 constructed models, the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model demonstrated the best performance, achieving an AUC of 0.853 and an accuracy of 0.839 in the validation cohort. Feature importance analysis highlighted that shock, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), renal disease, age, albumin, and alanine aminotransferase (ALP) were the top six features of the GBDT model with the most significant impact. Furthermore, SHAP force analysis illustrated how the constructed model visualized the individualized prediction of death. Conclusions Patient data from the MIMIC database were leveraged to develop a robust prognostic model for patients with NVUGIB in the ICU. The analysis using SHAP also assisted clinicians in gaining a deeper understanding of the disease. |
| Related Links | https://eurjmedres.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s40001-024-02005-0.pdf |
| Ending Page | 11 |
| Page Count | 11 |
| Starting Page | 1 |
| File Format | HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.1186/s40001-024-02005-0 |
| Journal | European Journal of Medical Research |
| Issue Number | 1 |
| Volume Number | 29 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | BioMed Central |
| Publisher Date | 2024-08-31 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Medicine Public Health Infectious Diseases Internal Medicine Surgery Oncology Biomedicine Medicine/Public Health |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Medicine |
| Journal Impact Factor | 2.8/2023 |
| 5-Year Journal Impact Factor | 2.9/2023 |
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