NDLI: A clinical model to predict the risk of synchronous bone metastasis in newly diagnosed colorectal cancer: a population-based study

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Guan, Xu Ma, Chen-xi Quan, Ji-chuan Li, Shuai Zhao, Zhi-xun Chen, Hai-peng Yang, Ming Liu, Zheng Jiang, Zheng Wang, Xi-shan
Abstract	Background The early detection of synchronous bone metastasis (BM) in newly diagnosed colorectal cancer (CRC) affects its initial management and prognosis. A clinical model to individually predict the risk of developing BM would be attractive in current clinical practice. Methods A total of 55,869 CRC patients were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, of whom 317 patients were diagnosed with synchronous BM. Risk factors for BM in CRC patients was identified using multivariable logistic regression. A weighted scoring system was built with beta-coefficients (P < 0.05). A random sample of 75% of the CRC patients was used to establish the risk model, and the remaining 25% was used to validate its accuracy of this model. The performance of risk model was estimated by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. Results The risk model consisted of 8 risk factors including rectal cancer, poorly-undifferentiation, signet-ring cell carcinoma, CEA positive, lymph node metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis and lung metastasis. The areas under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) were 0.903 and 0.889 in the development and validation cohort. Patients with scores from 0 to 4 points had about 0.1% risk of developing BM, and the risk increased to about 30% in patients with scores ≥15 points. Conclusions This clinical risk model is accurate enough to identify the CRC patients with high risk of synchronous BM and to further provide more individualized clinical decision.
Related Links	https://bmccancer.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12885-019-5912-x.pdf
Ending Page	9
Page Count	9
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712407
DOI	10.1186/s12885-019-5912-x
Journal	BMC Cancer
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	19
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2019-07-17
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Cancer Research Oncology Surgical Oncology Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Biomedicine Medicine Public Health Colorectal cancer Bone metastasis Risk model Risk factors The surveillance epidemiology and end results database Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Cancer Research Oncology Genetics
Journal Impact Factor	3.4/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.8/2023

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