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| Content Provider | Springer Nature : BioMed Central |
|---|---|
| Author | Zhang, Haidong Du, Xuanlong Dong, Hui Xu, Wenjing Zhou, Pengcheng Liu, Shiwei Qing, Xin Zhang, Yu Yang, Meng Zhang, Yewei |
| Abstract | Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a kind of tumor with high invasiveness, and patients with advanced HCC have a higher risk of early death. The aim of the present study was to identify the risk factors of early death in patients with advanced HCC and establish predictive nomograms. Methods Death that occurred within 3 months of initial diagnosis is defined as early death. Patients diagnosed with stage IV HCC between 2010 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database for model establishment and verification. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors. Predictive nomograms were constructed and an internal validation was performed. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to verify the true clinical application value of the models. Results Of 6603 patients (57% age > 60, 81% male, 70% white, 46% married), 21% and 79% had stage IVA and IVB, respectively. On the multivariable analyses, risk factors for early deaths in patients with stage IVA were age, tumor size, histological grade, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), fibrosis score, tumor stage (T stage), surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy, and that in stage IVB were age, histological grade, AFP, T stage, node stage (N stage), bone metastasis, lung metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. The areas under the curves (AUCs) were 0.830 (95% CI 0.809–0.851) and 0.789 (95% CI 0.768–0.810) in stage IVA and IVB, respectively. Nomograms comprising risk factors with the concordance indexes (C-indexes) were 0.820 (95% CI 0.799–0.841) in stage IVA and 0.785 (95% CI 0.764–0.0.806) in stage IVB for internal validation (Bootstrapping, 1000re-samplings). The calibration plots of the nomograms show that the predicted early death was consistent with the actual value. The results of the DCA analysis show that the nomograms had a good clinical application. Conclusion The nomograms can be beneficial for clinicians in identifying the risk factors for early death of patients with advanced HCC and predicting the probability of early death, so as to allow for individualized treatment plans to be accurately selected. |
| Related Links | https://bmcgastroenterol.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12876-022-02424-5.pdf |
| Ending Page | 15 |
| Page Count | 15 |
| Starting Page | 1 |
| File Format | HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12876-022-02424-5 |
| Journal | BMC Gastroenterology |
| Issue Number | 1 |
| Volume Number | 22 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | BioMed Central |
| Publisher Date | 2022-07-19 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Gastroenterology Internal Medicine Hepatology Hepatocellular carcinoma SEER database Early death Risk factors Nomogram |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Gastroenterology |
| Journal Impact Factor | 2.5/2023 |
| 5-Year Journal Impact Factor | 2.7/2023 |
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