NDLI: Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Boyle, James P Thompson, Theodore J Gregg, Edward W Barker, Lawrence E Williamson, David F
Abstract	Background People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs. Methods Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of \"no diabetes\" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk. Results The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.
Related Links	https://pophealthmetrics.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/1478-7954-8-29.pdf
Ending Page	12
Page Count	12
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14787954
DOI	10.1186/1478-7954-8-29
Journal	Population Health Metrics
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	8
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2010-10-22
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Epidemiology Research Methodology Health Services Research Impaired Fasting Glucose Diabetes Prevalence Diabetes Incidence Undiagnosed Diabetes High Mortality Risk
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Epidemiology
Journal Impact Factor	3.2/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.3/2023

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010–2030

Diabetes prevalence and diagnosis in US states: analysis of health surveys

Cardiovascular disease risk factors in a Nigerian population with impaired fasting blood glucose level and diabetes mellitus

Twelve-year trends in the prevalence and risk factors of diabetes and prediabetes in Turkish adults

Prevalence and risk factors of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Nauru

Statin Use, Diabetes Incidence and Overall Mortality in Normoglycemic and Impaired Fasting Glucose Patients

The prevalence and determinants of impaired fasting glucose in the population of Taiwan

Prevalence of Impaired Fasting Glucose and Type 2 Diabetes in Kazakhstan: Findings From Large Study

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

Similar Documents

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010–2030

Diabetes prevalence and diagnosis in US states: analysis of health surveys

Cardiovascular disease risk factors in a Nigerian population with impaired fasting blood glucose level and diabetes mellitus

Twelve-year trends in the prevalence and risk factors of diabetes and prediabetes in Turkish adults

Prevalence and risk factors of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Nauru

Statin Use, Diabetes Incidence and Overall Mortality in Normoglycemic and Impaired Fasting Glucose Patients

The prevalence and determinants of impaired fasting glucose in the population of Taiwan

Prevalence of Impaired Fasting Glucose and Type 2 Diabetes in Kazakhstan: Findings From Large Study

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence