NDLI: Simulating climate change impact on soil carbon sequestration in agro-ecosystem of mid-Himalayan landscape using CENTURY model

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Gupta, Surya Kumar, Suresh
Copyright Year	2017
Abstract	Soils play significant roles in global carbon cycle. The increase in atmospheric CO$_{2}$ due to climate change may have a significant impact on both soil organic carbon storage and management practices to sequester organic carbon in agricultural areas. The aim of the study was to simulate climate change impact on soil carbon sequestration using CENTURY model. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate variables (temperature and rainfall) under two scenarios A2 and B2 for three periods: 2020 (2011–2040), 2050 (2041–2070) and 2080 (2071–2099). Downscaling was better in case of temperature than precipitation, which was evident from coefficient of correlation for temperature (r $^{2}$ = 0.91–0.99) and precipitation (r $^{2}$ = 0.71–0.80). Downscaling of climate data revealed that the temperature may increase for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 periods, whereas precipitation may increase till 2020 and then it may reduce in 2050 and 2080 as compared to 2020 in the study area. For CENTURY model, the input parameters were obtained through soil sampling and interviewing the farmers as well, whereas the climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation) were taken from the SDSM output. The historical data of soils were collected from the literature, and six agricultural sites were selected for estimating soil carbon sequestration. After soil sampling of the same sites, it was found that the organic carbon had increased two times than historical data might be due to the addition of high organic matter in the form of farm yard manure. Therefore, the model was calibrated, considering more organic carbon in the area, and was validated using random points in the study area. Determination coefficient (r $^{2}$ = 0.95) and RMSE (538 g c/m$^{2}$) were computed to assess the accuracy of the model. The organic carbon was predicted from 2011 to 2099 and was compared with the 2011 predicted data. The study revealed that the amount of soil organic carbon in Bhaitan, Kanatal, Kotdwar, Malas, Pata and Thangdhar sites may reduce by 11.6, 15.8, 17.19, 13.54, 19.2 and 12.7%, respectively, for A2 scenario and by 9.62, 15.6, 15.72, 11.45, 16.96 and 13.36% for B2 scenario up to 2099. The study provides comprehensive possible future scenarios of soil carbon sequestration in the mid-Himalaya for scientists and policy makers.
Starting Page	1
Ending Page	15
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	18666280
Journal	Environmental Earth Sciences
Volume Number	76
Issue Number	11
e-ISSN	18666299
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2017-05-31
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate change Soil carbon sequestration CENTURY model Himalayan landscape Geology Hydrology/Water Resources Geochemistry Environmental Science and Engineering Terrestrial Pollution Biogeosciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Global and Planetary Change Earth-Surface Processes Soil Science Environmental Chemistry Pollution Geology Water Science and Technology

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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